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table of contents
  1. Half Title Page
  2. Beyond Boundaries Series
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright
  5. Contents
  6. Acronyms
  7. Acknowledgements
  8. Introduction - The War of 196?
  9. Part 1 - Imminence of War, 1944–1954
    1. 1 - A Third World War in the Making?
    2. 2 - Agreed Intelligence
    3. 3 - The Most Important Question
  10. Part 2 - Indications of War, 1954–1966
    1. 4 - The Origins of Indications Intelligence
    2. 5 - The Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement
    3. 6 - The Alerts Agreement in Action
    4. Conclusion - A Semi-Dormant but Continuing Agreement
  11. Notes
  12. Bibliography
  13. Index

Bibliography

Unpublished Primary Sources

Directorate of History and Heritage, Department of National Defence (DHH/DND)

2002/17 Joint Staff Fonds

Library and Archives Canada (LAC)

Record Group 2 (Privy Council Office)

A-5-a Cabinet Conclusions

I-60 International Situation

Record Group 24 (Department of National Defence)

1946 Army Central Registry

9042-34/0-1 Intelligence – Appreciations by Canadian Joint Intelligence Committee on Soviet capabilities and strategic objectives in a war before July 1949

Defence Research Board

DRBS 2-1-172-10 Scientific Intelligence and Defence Research, Strategic Guidance

Directorate of Military Intelligence

1216-J2-2 Intelligence – Canadian Joint Intelligence Committee – Agenda and minutes

1216-J2-3 Canadian Joint Intelligence Committee Programmes

Joint Intelligence Bureau, Registry Files

JIBS 266-2000-1 Joint Intelligence Committee – Economic and Topographic Intelligence – Exchange of Information

Joint Staff and Chiefs of Staff Committee, Central Registry

CSC 5-11-2 Hickory Indoctrination

CSC 7-18 Strategic Appreciations

CSC 1313:1 Warning of Attack – Channel of Transmission

CSC 1571:1 Imminence of War

CSC 1652:1 MCC Canada-United States Emergency Defence Plan

CSC 2433:1 Intelligence Conferences – General

Royal Canadian Navy Third Central Registry System

1272-10 Joint Planning Sub-Committee – Vice Chief of Staff Committee

1272-17 Chiefs of Staff Committee – ABC Intelligence – General

1272-17-1 Chiefs of Staff Committee – ABC Intelligence – Part 1

1272-17-2 Chiefs of Staff Committee - ABC Intelligence - ABCI 15, Part2

1274-10 Canadian Joint Intelligence Committee – Minutes

1274-10-9 Joint Intelligence Committee – Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee

1480-12 Intelligence Situation and War Measures – Indications from Intelligence Rooms

1480-29 Agreed Canada-United States Estimate Entitled “Soviet Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action Against Canada, the United States and the Areas Adjacent Thereto”

1480-36 General Intelligence – Imminence of War – Reports and Papers

Record Group 25 (Department of External Affairs)

Defence Liaison (2) Special Registry

1-3-12-2 Intelligence Policy Committee Master File Papers 1962

1-3-13-1 Intelligence Advisory Committee (IAC) [Joint Intelligence Organization (JIC)] – Organization and Terms of Reference

3-10-2 Current Intelligence, Indications & Briefing – CIIB

Foreign Intelligence Bureau Special Records Unit

29-3-1-2 Intelligence Agreements – Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement (CDA/UK/USA)

Security and Intelligence Liaison – Special Registry (PSIR)

29-4-IAC Intelligence – Conferences & Organizations Intelligence Advisory Committee

Special Registry Small S Series

2-AE(s) Relations Between Western World and Soviet Union and Its Satellite States – (Soviet Union Foreign Policy)

52-C(s) Canadian Post-War Defence Relationship with the United States

52-F(s) Memoranda on United States-USSR Relations as Affecting Canadian Policy 1947–1948

Top Secret Registry, 50,000 Series

50028-AK-40 JIC - Imminence of War

50028-AP-40 JIC - Soviet Union – Long-Term Intentions

50028-B-40 JIC – Soviet Union

50028-CH-40 JIC – Cuba – General Records

50219-AE-40 Canada-USA Meeting on Consultation on Threat of Atomic War

50266-40 Emergency Defence Arrangements Hickory and Bullmoose

Record Group 73 (Ministry of the Solicitor General)

National Security Directorate Files

7/10/A/1 Minutes of Intelligence Advisory Committee Meetings

7/10/A/4 Intelligence Advisory Committee – Intelligence Alerts Communications Network

National Archives of the United Kingdom (NAUK)

Prime Minister’s Office: Correspondence and Papers, 1951–1964

PREM 11/2276 Tripartite alert machinery for exchange of intelligence

between United States, Canada, and UK: note of Bermuda

Conference Agreement 1957

PREM 11/3002 French proposals for organisation to promote closer

co-operation between UK, US, and France on defence

and security matters

Records of the Cabinet Office

CAB 159/5 Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee later Committee: Minutes (JIC Series). Meetings: 1–64. [1949]

CAB 159/7 Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee later Committee: Minutes (JIC Series). Meetings: 1–68. [1950]

CAB 159/8 Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee later Committee: Minutes (JIC Series). Meetings: 69–138. [1950]

Published Primary Sources and Collections

Freedom of Information Act Reading Room (FOIA RR), Central Intelligence Agency, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/home

Documents on Canadian External Relations (DCER)

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 8, 1939–1941. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 9, 1942–1943. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 11, 1944–1945. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 12, 1946. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 14, 1948. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 15, 1949. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 20, 1954. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 21, 1955. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada.

Canada. Department of External Affairs. Documents on Canadian External Relations: Volume 29, 1962–1963. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada

Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS)

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1945–1950, Emergence of the Intelligence Establishment. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1946, Volume V, The British Commonwealth, Western and Central Europe. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1946, Volume VI, Eastern Europe, The Soviet Union. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950, Volume VII, Korea. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1952–1954, Volume II, Part 1, National Security Affairs. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1952–1954, Volume V, Part 1, Western European Security. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Secondary Sources

Alanbrooke, Field Marshall Lord. War Diaries, 1939–1945. Edited by Alex Danchev and Daniel Todman. London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson, 2001.

Aronsen, Lawrence. “Preparing for Armageddon: JIC 1 (Final) and the Soviet Attack on Canada.” Intelligence and National Security 19, no. 3 (2004): 490–510. https://doi.org/10.1080/0268452042000316250.

Barnes, Alan. “A Confusion, Not a System: The Organizational Evolution of Strategic Intelligence Assessment in Canada, 1943 to 2003.” Intelligence and National Security 34, no. 4 (2019): 464–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2019.1578043.

Belden, Thomas G., ed., “The National Indications Center and the Warning Process (U).” Institute for Defense Analyses Systems Evaluation Division, July 1969. CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP81B00493R000100110006-5.pdf.

Bothwell, Robert. Alliance and Illusion: Canada and the World, 1945–1984. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2007.

Condit, Kenneth W. History of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Policy, 1947-1949, vol. 2. Washington, DC: Office of Joint History, Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1996.

Dolak, Monique. “Preparing for Peace in Time of War: Canada and the Post-Hostilities Planning Committees, 1943-1945.” Journal of Military and Strategic Studies 15, no. 3 (2014): 124–37. https://jmss.org/article/view/58115/43732.

Donaghy, Greg. “Nukes and Spooks: Canada-US Intelligence Sharing and Nuclear Consultations, 1950–1958.” In Transnationalism: Canada-United States History into the 21st Century, edited by Michael D. Behiels and Reginald C. Stuart, 241–58. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2010.

———. “When the Chips Are Down: Eisenhower, Diefenbaker, and the Lebanon Crisis, 1958.” In Reassessing the Rogue Tory: Canadian Foreign Relations in the Diefenbaker Era, edited by Janice Cavell and Ryan M. Touhey, 85–102. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2019.

Dziuban, Stanley W. Military Relations Between the United States and Canada, 1939–1945. Washington, DC: Center for Military History, United States Army, 1990.

Eayrs, James. In Defence of Canada Vol IV: Growing Up Allied. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1985.

Eberlee, Samuel. “Danger in the Asia-Pacific: Canadian Intelligence Analysis and the ‘Imminence’ of World War, 1950–1959.” Master of Arts Directed Research Paper, University of Toronto, 2021.

Finletter, Thomas K. Survival in the Air Age: A Report by the President’s Sir Policy Commission. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1948.

Flint, Roy K. “Task Force Smith and the 24th Division: Delay and Withdrawal, 5–19 July 1950.” In America’s First Battles, 1776–1965, edited by Charles E. Heller and William A. Stofft, 266–99. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, 1986.

Garthoff, Raymond L. “Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities.” In Watching the Bear: Essays on CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union, edited by Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, 135–86. Langley: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 2003.

Goette, Richard. Sovereignty and Command in Canada–US Continental Air Defence, 1940–57. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2018.

Goodman, Michael S. “The Foundations of Anglo-American Intelligence Sharing.” Studies in Intelligence 59, no. 2 (June 2015): 1–12, https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Foundations-of-Anglo-American.pdf.

———. The Official History of the Joint Intelligence Committee: Volume 1: From the Approach of the Second World War to the Suez Crisis. London: Routledge, 2014.

Grabo, Cynthia. “A Handbook of Warning Intelligence.” Vol. 1. Defense Intelligence Agency, July 1972. CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80B00829A000800040001-6.pdf.

Grant, Lindsay. “28 September 1966: Provision of Tripartite Intelligence Conference Network.” Canada Declassified. Accessed June 19, 2023. https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/exhibits/show/the-many-heads-of-hydra--canad/1966-1971--heads-and-tails--th/28-september-1966--provision-o.

———. “The Many Heads of HYDRA: Canada as Cold War Signals Intelligence Hub.” Canada Declassified. Accessed June 2023. https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/exhibits/show/the-many-heads-of-hydra--canad/summary.

Jensen, Kurt F. Cautious Beginnings: Canadian Foreign Intelligence, 1939–51. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2009.

Jones, Matthew. “‘A Matter of Joint Decision’: The Origins of British Nuclear Retaliation Procedures and the Murphy–Dean Agreement of 1958,” The English Historical Review, 2024, early access, https://doi.org/10.1093/ehr/ceae161.

———. The Official History of the UK Strategic Nuclear Deterrent: Volume 1: From the V-Bomber to the Arrival of Polaris, 1945–1964. London: Routledge, 2017.

Kaplan, Lawrence S. NATO before the Korean War: April 1949–June 1950. Kent, OH: The Kent State University Press, 2013.

Kuhns, Woodrow J., ed. Assessing the Soviet Threat: The Early Cold War Years. Washington: Centre for the Study of Intelligence, 1997. https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Assessing-the-Soviet-Threat-The-Early-Cold-War-Years.pdf.

Leffler, Melvyn P. “National Security and US Foreign Policy.” In Origins of the Cold War: An International History, eds. Melvyn P. Leffler and David S. Painter, 15–52. London: Routledge, 1994.

McKercher, Asa. “A ‘Half-hearted Response’? Canada and the Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962.” The International History Review 33, no. 2 (June 2011): 335–52. https://doi.org/10.1080/07075332.2011.555450.

———. “Neutralism, Nationalism, and Nukes, Oh My! Revisiting Peacemaker or Powder-Monkey and Canadian Strategy in the Nuclear Age.” In Nuclear North: Histories of Canada in the Atomic Age, edited by Susan Colbourn and Timothy Andrews Sayle, 88–108. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2019.

Munton, Don, and Don Page. “Planning in the East Block: The Post-Hostilities Problems Committees in Canada 1943–5.” International Journal 32, no. 4 (1977): 687–726. https://doi.org/10.2307/40201593.

Pickersgill, J. W., and D. F. Forster. The Mackenzie King Record Volume 3, 1945/46. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1970.

Sayle, Timothy Andrews. “Indications of War: American, British and Canadian Intelligence Diplomacy and the 1957 Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement.” Intelligence & National Security 38, no. 3 (2023): 427–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2022.2123936.

———. “The Moment Canada Learned about the Cuban Missile Crisis.” Canada Declassified, October 21, 2023. https://timsayle.substack.com/p/the-moment-canada-learned-about-the.

———. “A Pattern of Constraint: Canadian-American Relations in the Early Cold War.” International Journal, 62, no. 3 (2007): 689–705. https://doi.org/10.1177/002070200706200316.

Smith, Denis. Diplomacy of Fear: Canada and the Cold War, 1941–1948. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1988.

Stacey, C. P. Arms, Men and Governments: The War Policies of Canada, 1939–1945. Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada, 1970.

———. Canada and the Age of Conflict: A History of Canadian External Policies. Toronto: Macmillan of Canada, 1977.

Steury, Donald P. “Origins of CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union.” In Watching the Bear: Essays on CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union, edited by Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett, 1–16. Langley: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 2003.

Valero, Larry A. “The American Joint Intelligence Committee and Estimates of the Soviet Union, 1945–1947.” Studies in Intelligence 44, no. 3 (Summer 2000): 4. https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/american-joint-intel-committee.pdf.

Wampler, Robert A. “Ambiguous Legacy: The United States, Great Britain and the Foundations of NATO Strategy, 1948–1957.” PhD diss., Harvard University, 1991.

Wark, Wesley. “‘Favourable Geography’: Canada’s Arctic Signals Intelligence Mission.” Intelligence and National Security 35, no. 3 (2020): 319–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2020.1724629.

Warner, Michael, ed. CIA Cold War Records, The CIA Under Harry Truman. Washington, DC: History Staff, Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1994. https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/CIA-Under-Harry-Truman-CIA-Documents-1994-Part-II-CIA-Hillenkoetter.pdf.

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