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table of contents
  1. Half Title Page
  2. Beyond Boundaries Series
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright
  5. Contents
  6. Acronyms
  7. Acknowledgements
  8. Introduction - The War of 196?
  9. Part 1 - Imminence of War, 1944–1954
    1. 1 - A Third World War in the Making?
    2. 2 - Agreed Intelligence
    3. 3 - The Most Important Question
  10. Part 2 - Indications of War, 1954–1966
    1. 4 - The Origins of Indications Intelligence
    2. 5 - The Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement
    3. 6 - The Alerts Agreement in Action
    4. Conclusion - A Semi-Dormant but Continuing Agreement
  11. Notes
  12. Bibliography
  13. Index

Index

A

ABAI. See American-British Agreed Intelligence (ABAI)

Abbott, Douglas, 90

ABC. See American-British-Canadian (ABC) planners

ABCI. See American-British-Canadian Intelligence (ABCI)

ACAI. See American-Canadian Agreed Intelligence (ACAI)

ADC. See Air Defence Command (ADC, Canada); Air Defense Command (ADC, US)

aide-mémoire (US), 135–136, 138, 144

air defence, 12, 19, 22, 118–119, 136–138

Air Defence Command (ADC, Canada), 118, 126, 137

Air Defense Command (ADC, US), 116–117, 118, 126, 137

air operations, 129, 149, 174

air power, 47–48, 50–51, 58–60, 61, 71

airplane detector equipment, 12

Alanbrooke, Field Marshall Lord, 18

Alaska, defence of, 12–13

ALE messages, 154, 156, 162, 163–164, 167, 173–174

Alert, Nunavut, 173

alerts. See also ALE messages

bilateral talks on, 136–140

intelligence vs. operational, 125, 156

procedures agreements, 134–136

stages, 158–159

treatment of, 125–126

trilateral discussions, 140–144

Alsop, Joseph, 43

American behaviour theories

desire for preventive war, 79, 101–102

galvanized by Korean invasion, 84

isolationism, 22

overestimation of Soviet Union, 20

oversensitivity to Soviet actions, 18

“provocative statements,” 97, 100

in shifting balance of power, 40

in views of diplomats and journalists, 42–44, 91

American Telegraph and Telephone cable repair, 168

American-British Agreed Intelligence (ABAI)

ABAI 5 “Soviet Intentions and Capabilities,” 58, 62, 63–64

American-British-Canadian (ABC) planners

ABC-22 “Joint Canadian-United States Basic Defence Plan,” 11, 23

ABCI 15 “Soviet Intentions and Capabilities,” 65–72

intelligence discussions and conference, 60–65

military planning, 48, 54–55

American-Canadian Agreed Intelligence (ACAI)

assessments, 48

“Soviet Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action . . . 1949–1956” (ACAI 5), 55–60

Amory, Robert

bilateral alert talks, 138–139

on intelligence sharing, 133, 135, 156

on tripartite alerts system, 159–160, 165, 166

Amyot, Paul E., 153

Anderson, William, 33

Anglo-American relationships, 8, 9, 10, 11, 64–65

appreciations (assessments)

“An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat to the Security of Canada and the United States” (JIC 3/48), 49–52

“Appreciation of the Requirements for Canadian-United States Security” (MCC), 25

defined, 23

no agreed Government view, 84

sharing, 100

team composition requirement, 31–32, 35

tripartite participation, 60–63

Arctic defence measures, 34, 37

Argus nuclear test explosion, 168

arms race, 34

Armstrong, Park, 117, 137–138, 139, 146–147

Asia

Communist powers, 177

concerns about American action in, 134

Associated Press, 130

Atherton, Ray, 30, 36

atomic bombs. See also nuclear weapons

in appreciations, 50–51, 57, 66

intelligence about, 33

program espionage, 25

Soviet explosions, 48, 65

in war scenarios, 27, 31, 71

Atwood, L. L., 70–71

Australia, 177–178, 179

B

Barnes, Tracey, 153

Basic National Security Policy, 112

Basic Security Plan (BSP), 25, 33, 47–48, 52, 55

Bean, W. W., 62, 63, 64–65, 70, 77

Berlin

Blockade, 108

Crises, 162, 167

and Soviet Union, 103

Bermuda conference, 143–144, 145

bilateral alerts, 136–140, 146

BJSM. See British Joint Staff Mission (BJSM)

Black, Pat, 157, 162–163, 167

Boucher, Valentine, 62, 64

Bow, Malcolm N., 174–175

Bowen, Ivor

on intelligence sharing, 114, 115, 117, 149–150, 166, 169

on interpretation of intelligence, 145

meeting with McCone, 171

on risks of war, 101

“The Continuing Need for Indications Intelligence,” 158

British behaviour theories

potential war between UK and Russia, 21

British Joint Staff Mission (BJSM), 128, 155

British Red Book, 155

BROILER (war plan), 52

Brook, Sir Norman, 122, 126

Bryce, Robert, 143, 172

BSP. See Basic Security Plan (BSP)

budgets

Canadian, 34, 90, 101

intelligence spending surge, 180

US military, 21, 25, 58

BULLMOOSE (war plan), 52

Burgess, Woodbury M., 116

C

“C” (Sir John Sinclair), 118, 119

Cabell, Charles P., 141–142, 145, 163

Cabinet Defence Committee (CDC)

on alerts consultation, 140

in Cuban Missile Crisis, 174

and defence planning, 27–28, 33, 55, 72

Cabinet War Committee (CWC), 21, 22

Cadieux, Marcel, 41–42

Camp X (Ontario), 151

Campney, Ralph, 140

Canada

alert communications procedures, 154

budget speeches, 90

Cabinet briefings, 33–34, 35

geographical exposure, 17, 19–20, 21–22, 34

intelligence spending, 180

and Korean War, 81

and Military Cooperation Committee paper, 27–29

military planning, 39–40

overview of officials’ views and actions, 4–5

in Second World War, 9–12

Soviet submarines in, 82–83

US military in, 12–13, 19, 22, 23

US overflights agreement, 136

Canadian Indications Room, 131–132, 138, 144. See also Joint Indications Room (JIR (Canada))

Canadian Joint Staff in Washington (CJSW), 12, 20–21

Canol pipeline, 12

Carter, Thomas L., 90

CAS. See Chief of the Air Staff (CAS)

Castro, Fidel, 171

CBNRC. See Communications Branch, National Research Council (CBNRC)

CDC. See Cabinet Defence Committee (CDC)

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). See also Amory, Robert; Dulles, Allen

and Canadian appreciations, 100

communications channels, 144–145, 153

indications intelligence coverage, 111–112

on intelligence sharing, 133, 135, 171–172

on Soviet intentions, 86, 99

and tripartite alerts system, 142, 154, 163

and Watch Committee, 108, 113

Central Intelligence Group (CIG), 28, 30–31

CGS. See Chief of the General Staff (CGS)

Chair, Chiefs of Staff (CCOS), 117. See also Foulkes, Charles

Check List Group (US), 108–109

check lists, 107, 108. See also indicator lists

Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), 21, 33, 47

Chief of the General Staff (CGS), 82, 84. See also Foulkes, Charles

Chiefs of Staff (UK), 63

“The Likelihood of Total War up to the End of 1954,” 98–99

Chiefs of Staff Committee (CSC)

and ACAI 5, 60

on Canada’s exclusion in bilateral talks, 11

composition and tasks, 20

on “imminence of war” papers, 94, 100–101

intelligence alert system, 127

on Joint Indications Room, 145

and political appreciations, 39

on security plan, 33, 40, 48

Chiefs of Staff Committee (CSC) documents

CSC 1(50), 72–73

CSC 31(50), 84

“The Imminence of War” CSC 20(50), 78–81

“The Imminence of War” CSC 22(50), 81–84

China, 79, 84–85, 130–131, 142, 160–161. See also Sino-Soviet Bloc actions

CIA. See Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

CIG. See Central Intelligence Group (CIG)

cipher equipment, 151, 152–153

civilian oversight of defence, 25, 32

Claxton, Brooke, 34–35, 55, 80–81, 86, 89, 90

Cline, Ray, 172

codewords, 124, 150, 152, 159, 161–162

Colorado Springs facility, 111, 112, 116

Combined Chiefs of Staff (CCS), 11–12

COMINT (Communications Intelligence), 118

Communications Branch, National Research Council (CBNRC), 118, 137, 151, 152, 153

communications channels, 126, 132, 146, 151–154, 157, 167–169, 178–179

communism

American fight against, 81

clash with capitalism dogma, 97

Czechoslovakia coup, 52

opposition in Soviet Union, 96

in Soviet intentions, 66, 72, 73, 74, 75, 93

consultation policy

in agreements, 10, 134–135, 136, 137, 139–140, 144

on alerts, 164–165

and Canada’s exclusion, 11, 63

in indications of war procedures, 127

in nuclear deployment decisions, 121–122

containment policy, 37, 42, 81

“The Continuing Need for Indications Intelligence” (Bowen), 158

Cook, Geoffrey, 171

crash (emergency) meetings, 119, 131, 132

Crean, G. G. “Bill”

on appreciation papers, 29–30, 32, 57, 59

bilateral alert talks, 138–139

communications implementation, 150–153

on indications intelligence, 116–117, 118–119, 123, 125–126, 127–128

on intelligence sharing, 135

on Soviet intentions, 92

trilateral alert talks, 141–144, 145–146

on trilateral intelligence discussions, 61, 62

Crerar, Harry, 11

CRITICOMM, 178

CSC. See Chiefs of Staff Committee (CSC)

Cuban Missile Crisis, 171–175

Current Intelligence Indications and Briefing Section (CIIB), 177

“The Current Risks of General War” (JIC 64/1(53)), 102–103, 104

“The Current Risks of War” (JIC 42/2(51)), 95–98

“The Current Risks of War” (JIC 42/3(52)), 100

CWC. See Cabinet War Committee (CWC)

Czechoslovakia Communist coup, 52, 108

D

DAI. See Director of Air Intelligence (DAI)

D-Day and M-Day, 17, 64

DEA. See Department of External Affairs (DEA)

Dean, Sir Patrick

alerts discussions, 132–133, 140–141

communications channel implementation, 150–151, 153

on indications intelligence, 119, 123, 128–129

on nuclear retaliation procedures, 155

tripartite agreement, 142–143, 145–146

tripartite alerts terms of use, 155–156, 165–166

defence planning. See also Basic Security Plan (BSP)

ABC-22, 11

Canada-US interdependence, 19, 22, 23–25, 32, 34–35

and offence planning, 31, 47–48, 54–55

policy, 6, 32–33, 36

as provocation, 19, 37

rearmament, 94, 100–101

Defence Research Board, 47, 80

Department of External Affairs (DEA). See also Crean, G. G. “Bill”; Pearson, Lester; Reid, Escott

on American action and Soviet reaction, 113

on bilateral alert system, 135, 137

collaborations with State Department, 31, 35, 36–38

communications channels, 152

on “The Current Risks of War,” 95–96

“Imminence of War” drafts, 78, 92–94, 98

joins Joint Intelligence Committee, 20

on likelihood of war, 84, 89, 94, 101–103

on Military Cooperation Committee papers, 28–29

on military thinking, 32, 87–88

on “national development,” 9

“Political Appreciation,” 36, 38–39

“Political Factors in the Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union,” 74–76

Soviet theory debates, 73–74

urged to participate in studies, 53

Department of Finance, 90

Department of National Defence (DND). See also Claxton, Brooke

on atomic bombs, 71

on imminence of war, 94

Indications of War Room, 111

intelligence alert system, 127, 140

Intelligence Division, 177

on Soviet intentions, 85

spending goals, 101

war planning, 87

Diefenbaker, John, 147, 167, 172, 174, 175

diplomatic corps

communications channels, 152, 153

in intelligence indications procedures, 169–170

on Soviet intentions, 21, 26, 41–43, 91–92

Director of Air Intelligence (DAI), 77–78, 92–94, 110–111, 139, 173

Director of Military Intelligence (DMI), 73, 82, 114, 116, 117

Director of Naval Intelligence (DNI), 114, 129, 173

Director of Scientific Intelligence (DSI), 78, 114

DMI. See Director of Military Intelligence (DMI)

DND. See Department of National Defence (DND)

DNI. See Director of Naval Intelligence (DNI)

DOUBLEQUICK (war plan), 52

DRUMSTICK (codeword), 161–162

Drury, Charles “Bud,” 94

DSI. See Director of Scientific Intelligence (DSI)

Duff, Anthony, 164

Dulles, Allen

and Indications Centre, 144–145

on intelligence sharing, 118

tripartite alerts terms of use, 165–167

on tripartite discussions, 141, 142, 145–146, 147

Dulles, John Foster, 122, 128, 132–133, 140, 143

E

Eayrs, James, 5

Eden, Anthony, 121–122, 123, 126

Edwards, RCAF Group Captain, 114

Eisenhower, Dwight D., 112, 141, 143, 145, 147

Elbrick, C. Burke, 133–134, 137

espionage and counterespionage, 25, 113, 129, 149, 172, 174

“Estimate of Soviet Postwar Intentions and Capabilities” (JIC (US)), 18

F

FALLEX 62 (NATO exercise), 170

Finletter Report, 47, 48

firmness policy, 42

Five Eyes intelligence community, 179

FLEETWOOD (war plan), 52

Ford, Robert, 42, 73, 87–88

Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), 130

Formosa Straits, 166

Fortress North America, 22, 24, 38

Foulkes, Charles

on futility of Soviet intention studies, 94

intelligence briefing room, 115

on Korean War, 80, 81, 84

on risk of war, 86, 101

on tripartite alerts system, 167

on tripartite discussions, 143

on war planning, 40, 47, 52–53

FROLIC (war plan), 52

Furnas, H. E., 137, 147

G

G-2 (United States Army military intelligence), 117

GCHQ. See Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ)

general war

196? scenario, 1–4

air vs. ground, 47

alerts system on, 159

American views, 37–38, 39–40

Canadian role in, 19, 40, 58

and Korean War, 79

from miscalculations, 97, 102–104, 158

in North America, 21, 27

overview of concerns, 7, 180

Germany, 86, 167. See also Berlin

Glazebrook, George

on aide-mémoire (US), 135

on bilateral information discussions, 137–138, 140

on Canadian Indications Centre, 144, 146

on Indications Project, 116

on risk of war, 95, 96

on Soviet intentions papers, 74

Goodman, Michael, 110

Gouzenko, Igor, 25

Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), 132, 152

Green, Howard, 174–175

H

Hadwen, John, 89–90

HALFMOON (war plan), 52, 63–64

Hayter, William, 60

Heeney, Arnold

on defence planning, 37

in intelligence sharing discussions, 128–129, 140

on “risks of war” assessments, 29, 95, 101

on Soviet intentions, 80

Henry, Guy, 23, 37

Hickerson, John, 32

HICKORY (war plan), 69

Hillenkoetter, R. H., 109

Hitchcock, J. J., 130–131

Horsey, Outerbridge, 137

Hydra communications hub, 132, 151

hydrogen bomb, 7, 103

I

IAC. See Intelligence Advisory Committee (IAC)

ICBM. See Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)

imminence of war

1944 prospects, 20–22

assessments studies, 179–180

Canadian overview, 4–6

DEA concerns about, 87

factors and situations, 82–83, 175

systematic reviews and tracking, 85–86

imminence of war, papers and documents related to

“Imminence of War” (DAI), 77–78

“The Imminence of War” (CSC 20(50)), 78–81

“The Imminence of War” (CSC 22(50)), 81–84

“The Imminence of War” (JIC 20(51)), 92–95

“The International Situation” (JIC (Ottawa)), 89–92

indications intelligence, papers and documents related to

“Indications Intelligence” (JIC 135/1(55)), 131–132

“Indications Intelligence: Communications and Watch Procedures” (JIC 278(58)), 157

“Indications of Russian Preparedness for War” (JIC (London)), 108

“The ‘Indications’ Project,” JIC 89(53), 115–116

“Possible Stages of Action when Indications of Major Russian Aggression are Received in Good Time,” 126–129

indications intelligence tracking systems. See also Joint Indications Room (JIR (Canada)); Joint Indications Room (JIR (UK))

American implementations, 108–110, 111–114

British implementations, 110, 123–125, 147

Canadian implementations, 107–108, 110–111, 117, 131–132, 145

continuing need for, 157–158

indications of war

British scenarios, 124

vs. friendly forces activities, 150

overview, 7–8

indicator lists, 115, 156, 159, 160–161, 168, 169–170, 177–178

Inglis, Thomas B., 63, 64

intelligence

analysis sharing, 36, 152

assessment team composition, 31–32

availability of, 25–26, 27–28, 61, 82, 129

Canadian deficiencies, 42, 56–57

“critical” as defined in Tripartite Alerts System, 161

intelligence (continued)

gathering, 130

records declassification, 4, 5, 179–180

timeliness of, 113, 117, 118–119, 123–126, 170–171

Intelligence Advisory Committee (IAC), 108–109, 112, 135–136, 146, 179–180

intelligence assessments. See appreciations

intelligence rooms. See rooms

intelligence sharing

American responses to, 132–136

American-British-Canadian planners, 61

flow, 118–119

and Joint Intelligence Committee Liaison Officers, 167

on marginal and developing situations, 164–167

security and secrecy of, 149–150

“Intelligence Warning of Military Attack on North America” (JIC 443/2(62)), 170–171

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), 158

“The International Situation” (JIC (Ottawa)), 89–92

Iran, 36

Iraq, 162

“Is War with Russia Inevitable?” (Kennan), 73

J

JCS. See Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS)

JIB. See Joint Intelligence Bureau (JIB)

JIC. See Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (London)); Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (Ottawa)); Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (US))

JICLO. See Joint Intelligence Committee Liaison Officers

JIG. See Joint Intelligence Group (JIG)

JIR. See Joint Indications Room (JIR (Canada)); Joint Indications Room (JIR (UK))

JIS. See Joint Intelligence Staff (JIS)

JISC. See Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee (JISC)

“Joint Canadian-United States Basic Defence Plan” (ABC-22), 11

Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), 23, 28, 63, 113, 134–135

Joint Indications Room (JIR (Canada))

implementation, 145, 146, 153, 156–157, 162, 173, 177

“Joint Indication Room: Standing Orders” (JIC 378/1 (60)), 170

“Joint Indication Room: Standing Orders” JIC 471(63), 177

Joint Indications Room (JIR (UK)), 146, 157, 167

Joint Intelligence Bureau (JIB), 101, 114, 130–131, 145, 149–150

Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (London))

on ABCI 15, 71

intelligence alerts, 119, 123–125, 164

intelligence reviews, 110

invites Canadian participation, 61

on Soviet interests and intentions, 18, 25–26, 99

on transatlantic communications vulnerability, 168–169

Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (London)) documents

“Indications of Russian Preparedness for War,” 108

“Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1955” (JIC (53)79 (Final)), 103, 104

“Likelihood of Total War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1954” (JIC (451)103 (Final)), 96

“The Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union . . . ” (JIC (50)7), 74

“Russia’s Strategic Interests and Intentions,” 25–26

“Soviet Intentions and Capabilities, 1950–1954” (with JIC (US)), 88–89

Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (Ottawa))

on ABCI 15, 70, 71

and ACAI 5, 60

on aide-mémoire, 135–136

Canadian Indications Room, 131–132, 144–145

communications channels, 152

and Cuban Missile Crisis, 173–175

in FALLEX 62 exercise, 170

indications intelligence reviews and tracking system, 85–86, 107, 111

indications of war project, 114–116, 117

intelligence alert systems, 125–130, 162, 163, 166–167

and Korean War, 77–78, 81–82

origin and function, 5, 20

Soviet intentions request, 72

Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (Ottawa)) documents

“A Review of the Risks of War” (JIC 58(52)), 100–101

“An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat to the Security of Canada and the United States” (JIC 3/48), 49–52

“An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives in a War Beginning before July, 1949” (JIC 4/48), 53–54

“The Current Risks of General War” (JIC 64/1(53)), 102–103, 104

“The Current Risks of War” (JIC 42/2(51)), 95–98, 99

“The Current Risks of War” (JIC 42/3(52)), 100

“Indications Intelligence” (JIC 135/1(55)), 131–132

“Indications Intelligence: Communications and Watch Procedures” (JIC 278(58)), 157

“Intelligence Warning of Military Attack on North America” (JIC 443/2(62)), 170–171

“The International Situation,” 89–92

JIC 1 (Final), 38–39

“Joint Indication Room: Standing Orders” (JIC 378/1 (60)), 170

“Joint Indication Room: Standing Orders” (JIC 471(63)), 177

“An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives in a War Beginning before July, 1949” (JIC 4/48), 53–54

“Probable Enemy Activities Prior to the Outbreak of War” (JIC 312/2(59)), 169, 170

“A Review of the Risks of War” (JIC 58(52)), 100–101

“Strategic Appreciation of the Capabilities of the U.S.S.R. to attack the North American Continent,” 29–30

“The Imminence of War” (JIC 20(51)), 92–95

“The International Situation” (JIC (Ottawa)), 89–92

“Tripartite Alerts System” (JIC 1103/1(58)), 159–160, 166

“Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement” (JIC 543(66) (Final)), 177

Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC (US))

on ABCI 15, 70–71

appreciation drafts, 51–52

assessments of future war, 28

“Estimate of Soviet Postwar Intentions and Capabilities,” 18

“Soviet Intentions and Capabilities, 1950–1954” (with JIC (London)), 88–89

Joint Intelligence Committee Liaison Officers (JICLO), 154, 157, 162–164, 167

Joint Intelligence Group (JIG), 55–58

Joint Intelligence Map Room (UK), 123

Joint Intelligence Staff (JIS)

in ABCI conference, 62–65

ACAI 5 drafting, 55–58

“Current Risks of War” redraft, 97–98

indications of war project, 114, 115

“An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives in a War Beginning before July, 1949” (JIC 4/48), 53–54

Soviet intention appreciation, 72–73

Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee (JISC), 107

Joint Planning Committee (JPC), 31, 39–40, 81–82

Joint War Plans Committee, 52

Jones, Paul, 163

Jordan, 162

JPC. See Joint Planning Committee (JPC)

K

Kellogg Pact, 43

Kennan, George, 26, 28, 36–37, 73

Kennedy, John F., 172, 173, 174

Khrushchev, Nikita, 171, 174

King, Mackenzie, 10, 19–20, 33–34

Knight, A. F. B., 73, 82

Korean War

Chinese intervention, 84–85

and general war, 7, 77–79, 80–82, 159

Soviet intervention, 91, 103

status, 100, 109

L

La Guardia, Fiorella, 11

Langley, A. J., 78, 114

Lay, H. N., 39–40

Lebanon, 162

Leckie, Robert, 21, 33

Léger, Jules, 134, 136–137, 146–147

Leitrim (Ottawa Wireless Station), 132, 152, 153

“Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1955” (UK JIC (53)79 (Final)), 103, 104

“Likelihood of the Deliberate Initiation of Full-Scale War by the USSR against the US and Its Western Allies Prior to the End of 1952” (NIE 48), 98, 99

“The Likelihood of Total War up to the End of 1954” (COS (52)285, UK), 98–99

“Likelihood of Total War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1954” (JIC (451)103 (Final), London), 96

“The Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union . . . ” (JIC (50)7 (London)), 74

Lloyd, Selwyn, 143, 147

London Indicator Centre, 126–127

“Long Telegram” (Kennan), 26

M

Macdonnell, R. M., 42, 92

MacKay, Robert, 71–72

Macmillan, Harold, 132, 141, 143, 145

Makins, Roger, 128, 133

Marshall, George, 91

MAYHEM (codeword), 159

MC48 (NATO strategy document), 121

MCC. See Military Cooperation Committee (MCC)

McCardle, J. M., 171–172, 173, 174

McCone, John, 171–172

McCordick, J. A., 96

McCoy, Tim, 70

M-Day and D-Day, 17, 64

mechanization/machinery

in UK systems, 123–124

in US ADC system, 116–117

and Watch Committee, 110, 111, 130, 131

Menzies, Arthur, 91

Merchant, Livingston, 133, 172

Middle East crises, 162, 163, 164

Military Cooperation Committee (MCC), 25, 26–29, 49, 51–52, 55, 59

Ministry of Defence (UK), 123, 132

miscalculations and accidents, 97, 100, 102–103, 104, 113, 150, 175

missiles, 141, 158, 171, 172, 177

missions abroad, 169–170

Murphy, Robert, 147, 155

Murray, Ralph, 123

N

National Indications Center (NIC), 113, 118, 130–131, 134, 141, 170

National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)

“Likelihood of the Deliberate Initiation of Full-Scale War by the USSR against the US and Its Western Allies Prior to the End of 1952” (NIE 48), 98, 99

“Probable Intelligence Warning of Soviet Attack on the US” (NIE 11-3-57), 149–150

on Soviet intentions, 86

National Security Agency (NSA), 118, 132, 137, 152, 153

National Security Council (NSC), 112–113, 129

NATO. See North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

New Zealand, 177–178, 179

NIC. See National Indications Center (NIC)

NIE. See National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)

196? war scenario, 1–4

1946 draft appreciation (MCC), 26–29, 49, 51–52

North America

American defence strategy for, 37–38

“Intelligence Warning of Military Attack on North America” (JIC 443/2(62)), 170–171

vulnerability assessments, 22–24, 27, 30, 33

North American Air Defence Command (NORAD), 162, 163

North Atlantic Alliance, 69

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

establishment, 48–49, 61–62, 63, 69–70, 71–72

FALLEX 62 exercise, 170

and intelligence alerts, 126–127, 128, 156

nuclear attack strategy (MC48), 121–122

and nuclear weapons, 7, 144

threats to participants, 86, 159, 163–164

and trilateral discussions, 142, 146, 147

North Atlantic Triangle, 8

Novorossisk (MV), 168–169

NSA. See National Security Agency (NSA)

NSC. See National Security Council (NSC)

nuclear retaliation procedures (UK-US), 155

nuclear war survival exercises, 170

nuclear weapons. See also atomic bombs

in 196? scenario, 1–3, 7

decision to launch process, 121–122, 134

and risk of war, 104

smuggled into North America, 171

test explosions, 48, 65, 103, 168

O

Office of Reports and Estimates (ORE), 28

“ORE 1: Soviet Foreign and Military Policy” (Office of Reports and Estimates), 28

OFFTACKLE (war plan), 69

oil pipelines, 12

“An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives in a War Beginning before July, 1949” (JIC 4/48), 53–54

P

Parsons, J. Graham, 24

PCO. See Privy Council Office (PCO)

Pearkes, George, 167

Pearson, Lester

on alerts systems, 122–123, 140

on Canada’s exclusion in wartime, 10, 11

on defence planning, 32–33

on global war plan, 47

on imminence of war, 89, 90, 91

joint appreciation and basic security plan development, 36, 39

on Korean situation, 81

on possibility of general war, 86

reassurances to Mackenzie King, 44

Pentagon, 69, 130, 131, 133, 134–135, 143

Perkins, George, 133

Permanent Joint Board of Defence (PJBD), 10–11, 19–20, 23–24, 31

PHP. See Post-Hostilities Planning (PHP) Committees

PJBD. See Permanent Joint Board of Defence (PJBD)

“Political Appreciation” (DEA), 35–36, 38–39

“Political Factors in the Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union” (DEA), 74–76

Pope, Maurice, 12, 23–24, 40, 41, 91–92

“Possible Stages of Action when Indications of Major Russian Aggression are Received in Good Time” (UK), 126–129

Post-Hostilities Planning (PHP) Committees, 17, 18–19, 20, 21

Privy Council Office (PCO), 29, 143, 168

“Probable Enemy Activities Prior to the Outbreak of War” (JIC 312/2(59)), 169, 170

“Probable Intelligence Warning of Soviet Attack on the US” (NIE 11-3-57), 149–150

“Procedures Preceding Attack by United States Retaliatory Forces from the United Kingdom” (TIAA), 155

R

Radford, Arthur W., 134–135, 143

RAF. See Royal Air Force (RAF)

RCAF. See Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF)

Reid, Escott

on Canada’s options, 19, 44

on political appreciations, 39, 49

on Soviet intentions papers, 74

on US balance of power, 40, 41

“Report of Tripartite Working Group on Tripartite Alert System,” 160

“A Review of the Risks of War” (JIC 58(52)), 100–101

Ritchie, Charles, 42–43, 95

Roberts, Frank, 26

Robertson, Norman, 29, 142, 172

Rockex cipher machine, 152–153, 154

rooms. See also Joint Indications Room (JIR (Canada)); Joint Indications Room (JIR (UK))

Air Defense Command (Colorado Springs), 111, 112, 116–117, 118

in Canadian discussions, 111, 115, 129

Canadian Indications Room, 131–132, 138, 144

Indications Room (USAF), 114, 130

Joint Intelligence Map Room (UK), 123

London Indicator Centre, 126–127

National Indications Center (US), 113, 118, 130–131, 141

Watch Room (CIA building), 109

Roosevelt, Franklin, 10, 19

Royal Air Force (RAF), 28, 59, 124

Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), 58, 114–115, 137, 173

“Russia’s Strategic Interests and Intentions” (JIC (London)), 25–26

S

SAC. See Strategic Air Command (SAC)

SACEUR. See Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR)

Samford, John, 139

Second World War

experiences and lessons, 9–13, 22–24

and post hostilities planning, 17, 20

Secretary of State for External Affairs (SSEA), 36

Sheldon, Huntington “Ting,” 112, 117, 163, 165

Sheldon Committee, 112, 117

signals intelligence, 118, 132, 173, 179

Sinclair, Sir John (“C”), 118, 119

Sino-Soviet Bloc actions, 160–161, 166, 177

Smith, Walter Bedell, 112

SNIE. See Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE)

Solandt, Omond, 80

Southam, Hamilton, 160

sovereignty, 19, 24–25

Soviet intention and behaviour theories

avoidance of war, 44, 87, 101

British theory, 18

diplomatic analyses, 26, 92

in responses to Escott Reid’s memorandum, 41–42

tie-down of American forces in Asia, 85

Soviet intention indicators, 124, 129, 170–171, 174

Soviet intentions and capabilities, papers and documents related to

“Russia’s Strategic Interests and Intentions” (JIC (London)), 25–26

“Soviet Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action . . . 1949–1956” (ACAI 5), 55–60

“Soviet Foreign and Military Policy” (ORE1), 28

“Soviet Intentions and Capabilities . . . ” (ABCI 15), 65–72

“Soviet Intentions and Capabilities” (ABAI 5), 58, 62, 63–64

“Soviet Intentions and Capabilities, 1950–1954” (US and UK), 88–89

Soviet satellite countries, 96

Soviet trawler MV Novorossisk, 168–169

Soviet Union

containment of, 37, 41–42

and Cuba, 171–172, 173, 175

espionage and counterespionage, 113

and Korean War, 97

military capability assessments, 49–52, 58–60, 61

post-war activities, 25, 30, 48, 65, 82–83, 103

as threat to North America, 17–18

in tripartite alerts system indicators, 160–161

Special National Intelligence Estimates (SNIE)

on intention of Communist rulers (SNIE11-54), 104

Watch system (SNIE 11-8-54), 113

SPEEDWAY (war plan), 52

SSEA. See Secretary of State for External Affairs (SSEA)

St. Laurent, Louis, 36

Stacey, C. P., 12

Stalin, Joseph, 25, 97, 101, 103

Standing Group (NATO), 121, 127

Starnes, John, 165–167

State Department (US)

aide-mémoire, 135

bilateral alert talks, 137–140

distrust of military thinking, 32

on indications intelligence, 108, 109

participation in assessments, 31

tripartite agreement, 146–147

views on Soviet threat, 28, 91

Steele, A. J., 144

stop lines, 37, 42

Strategic Air Command (SAC), 136, 162

“Strategic Appreciation of the Capabilities of the U.S.S.R. to attack the North American Continent” (JIC (Ottawa)), 29–30

Suez Crisis, 141, 142, 159

Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR), 121, 122

T

Taiwan Straits, 130–131, 162

third nation information, 132

TIAA. See Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement (TIAA)

Todd, W. E., 61, 62, 63, 64, 71

transatlantic communications cables, 151, 167–169

TRIAN terminals, 178–179

Tripartite Alert(s) Communications System

during Cuban Missile Crisis, 173

elements and procedures, 160–162

legacy, 178–179

and missions abroad, 169–170

in operation, 163, 175

terms of use, 155–156, 159–160, 163–167

Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement (TIAA)

communications implementations, 150–154

finalization, 145–147

legacy, 179, 180

nuclear retaliation procedures, 155

overview, 6, 8, 10

trilateral discussions, 140–145

“Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement” (JIC 543(66) (Final)), 177

Truman, Harry, 47, 58, 65, 108

trust and distrust

in ABC-22 negotiations, 11

towards military thinking, 32

Turkey, 30, 37

U

U-2 aircraft, 149, 172, 174

UN. See United Nations (UN)

Under-Secretary of State for External Affairs (USSEA), 29, 53, 80, 85, 95, 134

United Kingdom

alert communications procedures, 154

embassy in Ottawa, 160

intelligence check lists, 108

Ministry of Defence (UK), 123, 132

and Suez Crisis, 141, 142

United Nations (UN), 79, 80, 85, 91, 159

United States

1952 election, 101–102

aide-mémoire, 135–136, 138, 144

alert communications procedures, 154

containment/firmness policy, 37, 42, 81

Cuban Missile Crisis, 171–175

defence spending, 21, 25, 58

indications intelligence tracking systems, 107, 111–114, 125

and Korean War, 78, 80, 81, 83–84

military facilities in Canada, 12–13, 19, 22, 23

military facilities in United Kingdom, 141

nuclear weapons, 7

in Second World War, 10–13

United States Air Force (USAF)

Air Defence Command, 111, 118, 126

Colorado Springs facility, 112, 116–117, 137

Indications Room, 114, 130

Wide-Band Tropospheric Forward Scatter System, 169

United States Army, 109, 117

United States Intelligence Board (USIB), 163, 166

Uren, Phillip, 133, 138, 163

USAF. See United States Air Force (USAF)

USIB. See United States Intelligence Board (USIB)

USSEA. See Under-Secretary of State for External Affairs (USSEA)

W

war. See also general war; imminence of war; Second World War

of nerves, 21, 26, 31

preventive, 42–44

War Office (UK), 123–124

war planning

1947-1948 joint plans, 52

American vs. Canadian vision, 22–24, 39–40

global, 58

imperatives for, 21

war rooms. See rooms

war scenarios

196? scenario, 1–4

in appreciation papers, 67–68, 96–98

Mackenzie King’s fears, 34

in North America, 27

weapons assumptions, 7, 28

Washington Times, 43

Watch Committee

development and expansion, 108, 109–110, 111–112, 113–114, 129, 130–131

intelligence sharing, 117–118, 137, 139, 155, 174

Watch Room, 109

Weiser, William, 58

Wershof, Max, 96

Western powers, 74, 83, 93, 101, 102

Whitely, John, 128

Wilgress, Dana, 18, 21, 26, 42, 44, 96–98

world domination aims, 72–73, 101

Wright, Hume, 43–44

Wrong, Hume, 29, 43, 91, 92

Annotate

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