Notes

Resources and Acronyms

Many citations in the following notes include an alpha-numeric Canada Declassified (CD) identifier, for instance CDIW00001. Any document with a CD identifier can be accessed online by visiting Canada Declassified (https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca) and searching for the CD identifier. Page numbers that follow the CD identifier reflect the page numbering in the electronic pdf rather than any numbering used in the original document.

As well, the Cabinet Conclusions, 1944–1979 (CC) from Library and Archives Canada are searchable at https://library-archives.canada.ca/eng/collection/research-help/politics-government-law/Pages/cabinet-conclusions.aspx.

Acronyms Used in Notes

CIA FOIA RR Central Intelligence Agency Freedom of Information Act Reading Room

DCER Documents on Canadian External Relations

DHH/DND Directorate of History and Heritage, Department of National Defence

FRUS Foreign Relations of the United States

GAC ATIP Global Affairs Canada Access to Information and Privacy

LAC Library and Archives Canada

LAC ATIP Library and Archives Canada Access to Information and Privacy

LAC CC Library and Archives Canada Cabinet Conclusions, 1944–1979

NAUK National Archives of the United Kingdom

PCO ATIP Privy Council Office Access to Information and Privacy

RG Record Group

Notes to Introduction

1. 1 What follows is drawn from “Design for Tomorrow – 196?,” June 1959, LAC RG 24, file CSC 7-18, part 1. The draft was written “for exercise purposes only.” I am grateful to Alan Barnes for bringing this document to my attention.

2. 2 James Eayrs, In Defence of Canada Vol IV: Growing Up Allied (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1985).

3. 3 See Asa McKercher, “Neutralism, Nationalism, and Nukes, Oh My! Revisiting Peacemaker or Powder-Monkey and Canadian Strategy in the Nuclear Age,” in Nuclear North: Histories of Canada in the Atomic Age, eds. Susan Colbourn and Timothy Andrews Sayle (Vancouver: UBC Press, 2019), 88–108.

4. 4 For an overview of the postwar intelligence structure in Canada, see Alan Barnes, “A Confusion, Not a System: The Organizational Evolution of Strategic Intelligence Assessment in Canada, 1943 to 2003,” Intelligence and National Security 34, no. 4 (2019): 464–79, https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2019.1578043, and Kurt F. Jensen, Cautious Beginnings: Canadian Foreign Intelligence, 1939–51 (Vancouver: UBC Press, 2009).

5. 5 Memorandum by Assistant Under-Secretary of State for External Affairs [hereafter USSEA], December 27, 1941, in Documents on Canadian External Relations [hereafter DCER], vol. 9, doc. 951, p. 1136.

6. 6 Quoted in C. P. Stacey, Arms, Men and Governments: The War Policies of Canada, 1939–1945 (Ottawa: Queen’s Printer for Canada, 1970), 141.

7. 7 Quoted in Stacey, Arms, Men and Governments, 142.

8. 8 As readers will note in Chapter 5, the TIAA was signed during John Diefenbaker’s premiership. But the crucial preparatory work had been completed while Louis St. Laurent was prime minister and Pearson the secretary of state for External Affairs.

9. 9 Minister in United States to First Secretary, March 21, 1944, DCER, vol. 11, doc. 870, p. 1407.

10. 10 On “strategical direction,” see Chairman, Canadian Section, Permanent Joint Board on Defence [hereafter PJBD], to Chairman, American Section, April 29, 1942, DCER, vol. 8, doc. 128, p. 201; and Vice-Chief of the General Staff to Chief of the General Staff, May 14, 1941, DCER, vol. 8, doc. 131, p. 206. See also Stacey, Arms, Men and Governments, 349–54.

11. 11 Stacey, Arms, Men and Governments, 160.

12. 12 Chief of the General Staff to Acting USSEA, March 28, 1941, DCER, vol. 8, doc. 121, p. 188.

13. 13 Memorandum from Chiefs of Staff to Minister of National Defence, April 15, 1941, DCER, vol. 8, doc. 124, p. 191.

14. 14 Memorandum from Counsellor [Pearson] to Acting USSEA, May 23, 1941, DCER, vol. 8, doc. 135, p. 212.

15. 15 Chairman, American Section, PBJD, to Chairman, Canadian Section,” May 2, 1941, DCER, vol. 8, doc. 129, p. 204-05.

16. 16 Chairman, Canadian Section, PBJD, to Chairman, American Section,” May 3, 1941, DCER, vol. 8, doc. 130, p. 205. For interesting commentary on American “neo-Imperialism,” see Memorandum by Assistant USSEA, April 14, 1942, DCER, vol. 9, doc. 952, p. 1136.

17. 17 Stacey, Arms, Men and Governments, 363.

18. 18 Stacey, Arms, Men and Governments, 163.

19. 19 Stacey, Arms, Men and Governments, 165.

20. 20 C. P. Stacey, Canada and the Age of Conflict: A History of Canadian External Policies (Toronto: Macmillan of Canada, 1977), 337.

21. 21 Stanley W. Dziuban, Military Relations Between the United States and Canada, 1939–1945 (Washington, DC: Center of Military History, United States Army, 1990), 108.

22. 22 Memorandum from Assistant USSEA to USSEA,” December 10, 1941, DCER, vol. 9, doc. 966, pp. 1163–64.

23. 23 Dziuban, Military Relations, 199.

24. 24 Memorandum from First Secretary to USSEA, February 29, 1944, DCER, vol. 11, doc. 869, p. 1400.

25. 25 “Memorandum by Director of Plans, Department of National Defence for Air, and by Secretary, Interdepartmental Panel on Joint Defence Projects,” December 1, 1943, DCER, vol. 9, doc. 1016, p. 1228.

Notes to chapter 1

1. 1 On the Post-Hostilities Planning Committee [hereafter PHP], see Don Munton and Don Page, “Planning in the East Block: The Post-Hostilities Problems Committees in Canada 1943-5,” International Journal 32, no. 4 (1977): 687–726, https://doi.org/10.2307/40201593; Monique Dolak, “Preparing for Peace in Time of War: Canada and the Post-Hostilities Planning Committees, 1943–1945” 15, no. 3 (2014): 124–37, https://jmss.org/article/view/58115/43732.

2. 2 “Canadian Defence Relationships with the United States,” PHP Working Committee Paper, Draft 2, May 26, 1944, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

3. 3 Field Marshall Lord Alanbrooke, War Diaries, 1939–1945, eds. Alex Danchev and Daniel Todman (London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson, 2001), 575.

4. 4 Michael S. Goodman, The Official History of the Joint Intelligence Committee: Volume 1: From the Approach of the Second World War to the Suez Crisis (London: Routledge, 2014), 248–55. Quote at 255.

5. 5 Larry A. Valero, “The American Joint Intelligence Committee and Estimates of the Soviet Union, 1945–1947” Studies in Intelligence 44, no. 3 (Summer 2000): 4, https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/american-joint-intel-committee.pdf.

6. 6 See Denis Smith, Diplomacy of Fear: Canada and the Cold War, 1941–1948 (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1988) and chapter 3 in Robert Bothwell, Alliance and Illusion: Canada and the World, 1945–1984 (Vancouver: UBC Press, 2007), 55–72.

7. 7 Kuibyshev no. 80 to Ottawa, July 3, 1943, LAC, RG 25, 2-AE(s), part 1, CDTT00002; Moscow no. 107 to Ottawa, August 23, 1943, LAC, RG 25, 2-AE(s), part 1, CDTT00004; Moscow no. 200 to Ottawa, November 18, 1943, LAC, RG 25, 2-AE(s), part 1, CDTT00007.

8. 8 “Canadian Defence Relationships with the United States,” May 26, 1944.

9. 9 Canadian Defence Relationships with the United States,” May 26, 1944.

10. 10 “For the Under-Secretary,” from J.A.G. [James George], April 12, 1944, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

11. 11 “Canada’s Post-war Defence Relationship with the United States,” April 11, 1944, revised June 29, 1944, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

12. 12 “For the Under-Secretary” April 12, 1944.

13. 13 Barnes, “A Confusion, Not a System,” 464–65. See also Jensen, Cautious Beginnings, 117–36.

14. 14 Barnes, “A Confusion, Not a System,” 465.

15. 15 Secretary, Chiefs of Staff Committee [hereafter CSC], to Secretary, Canadian Joint Staff [hereafter CJS] Washington, July 26, 1944, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

16. 16 CJS Washington JS 101 to Secretary, CSC, August 5, 1944, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

17. 17 Hume Wrong to Lester Pearson, January 3, 1944 [but should be 1945], LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

18. 18 Memorandum to Mr. Wrong from Maurice Pope, January 4, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

19. 19 Moscow no. 368 to Ottawa, September 25, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 2-AE(s), part 1, CDTT00009, p. 3.

20. 20 “Post War Canadian Defence Relationships with the United States: General Considerations,” CWC [Cabinet War Committee], January 4, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s). While this document is marked “Final – Second Revision,” a slightly revised version was truly finalized on January 23, 1945, and is available in the same folder.

21. 21 “Post War Canadian Defence Relationships with the United States,” January 23, 1945.

22. 22 “Post War Canadian Defence Relationships with the United States,” January 23, 1945.

23. 23 “Post War Canadian Defence Relationships with the United States,” January 23, 1945.

24. 24 “Continental Defence Value of the Canadian Northwest,” by Major General Guy V. Henry, June 8, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s); “Postwar Collaboration,” by Major General Guy V. Henry, June 8, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

25. 25 Untitled memorandum from Pope to several recipients, July 28, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

26. 26 “Suggested draft of observations on General Henry’s statement on (a) Continental Defence Value of Canadian Northwest and (b) Canada-United States Post-War Collaboration, to be made by Canadian section at Meeting of the PJBD to be held in Montreal, 4th September 1945,” August 10, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

27. 27 “Suggested draft of observations on General Henry’s statement,” August 10, 1945.

28. 28 “Suggested draft of observations on General Henry’s statement,” August 10, 1945.

29. 29 “Brief of Informal Remarks by the Acting Secretary, United States Section, PJBD, New York, November 7, 1945, on the Subject of Continuing Canadian-American Military Collaboration,” undated, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s). See also Memorandum for Mr. Wrong from RMM [Ronald Macalister Macdonnell], November 16, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

30. 30 “Brief of Informal Remarks by the Acting Secretary,” undated. See also Memorandum for Mr. Wrong from RMM, November 16, 1945.

31. 31 “Brief of Informal Remarks by the Acting Secretary,” undated. See also Memorandum for Mr. Wrong from RMM, November 16, 1945.

32. 32 Memorandum of the PJBD Canada-United States, January 17, 1946, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

33. 33 For a full discussion of the replacement of ABC-22, see the excellent account in Chapter 5 of Richard Goette, Sovereignty and Command in Canada-US Continental Air Defence, 1940–57 (Vancouver: UBC Press, 2018). Note that if the US preliminary continental defence plan focused on offence as the best defence, that was not entirely clear to the Canadians: Goette, Sovereignty and Command, 113.

34. 34 Arnold Heeney to Douglas Abbott, November 19, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

35. 35 Unsent telegram, Secretary of State for External Affairs [hereafter SSEA] to Washington, January 30, 1946, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

36. 36 “Postwar defence collaboration with the United States,” December 19, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

37. 37 “Progress Report No. 1,” from the Joint Planning Committee, CSC, October 29, 1946, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15194, p. 4.

38. 38 Goodman, The Official History, 258.

39. 39 Quoted in Goodman, The Official History, 258–62, quote at 262. See brief discussion in Jensen, Cautious Beginnings, 140–41.

40. 40 “The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kennan) to the Secretary of State,” February 22, 1946, Foreign Relations of the United States [hereafter FRUS], 1946, vol. VI, Eastern Europe, The Soviet Union, doc. 475, p. 707.

41. 41 Moscow no. 185 to Ottawa, April 24, 1946, LAC, RG 25, series 2(AE)s, part 1, CDTT00014, p. 1.

42. 42 “Combined Canada-United States Intelligence Appreciations,” Memorandum for JPC to CSC, October 29, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 977, p. 1660.

43. 43 “An Appreciation of the Basic Security Requirements for Canadian-U.S. Security,” No. 1, May 23, 1946, LAC, RG24, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15173, p. 3.

44. 44 “An Appreciation of the Basic Security Requirements,” No. 1, May 23, 1946, p. 2.

45. 45 “An Appreciation of the Basic Security Requirements,” No. 1, May 23, 1946, p. 5.

46. 46 Excerpt from the 353rd Meeting of the CSC, June 7, 1946, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15176, p. 1.

47. 47 Excerpt from the 356th Meeting of the CSC, June 25, 1946, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15184.

48. 48 “Canadian-United States Joint Appreciation and Basic Security Plan; comments thereon by the Chief of Staff,” Memorandum for the CDC, July 15, 1946, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15192, p. 1.

49. 49 “Canadian-United States Joint Appreciation and Basic Security Plan; comments thereon by the Chief of Staff,” July 15, 1946, p. 1.

50. 50 Woodrow J. Kuhns, ed., Assessing the Soviet Threat: The Early Cold War Years (Washington: Centre for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1997), 6, https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Assessing-the-Soviet-Threat-The-Early-Cold-War-Years.pdf. The declassified document is also available online at the CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000256601.pdf.

51. 51 Kuhns, Assessing the Soviet Threat, 10.

52. 52 Valero, “The American Joint Intelligence Committee”; Donald P. Steury, “Origins of CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union” in Watching the Bear: Essays on CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union, eds. Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett (Langley: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 2003).

53. 53 Raymond L. Garthoff, “Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities” in Watching the Bear: Essays on CIA’s Analysis of the Soviet Union, eds. Gerald K. Haines and Robert E. Leggett (Langley: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 2003). ORE-1, along with JCS 1696, were prepared to support the Clifford-Elsey Report to Harry S. Truman, but had much less significance than Kennan’s long telegram.

54. 54 “The Possibility of War with the Soviet Union,” Memorandum by Associate USSEA, June 28, 1946, DCER 12, doc. 961, p. 1632.

55. 55 Excerpt from the 354th Meeting of the CSC, June 11, 1946, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15177; Excerpt from the 355th Meeting of the CSC, June 20, 1946, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15182.

56. 56 Secretary, JIC, to JIC Members, August 15, 1946, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00630. The appreciation itself is “Strategic Appreciation of the Capabilities of the U.S.S.R. to Attack the North American Continent,” undated, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00629.

57. 57 “Strategic Appreciation,” undated, p. 2.

58. 58 Memorandum for Mr. Riddell from Crean, August 23, 1946, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00632, p. 2.

59. 59 Memorandum for Mr. Riddell from Crean, August 23, 1946, p. 1.

60. 60 The Ambassador in Canada (Atherton) to the Secretary of State, August 28, 1946, FRUS, 1946, vol. V, The British Commonwealth, Western and Central Europe, doc. 33, pp. 53–55.

61. 61 Special Study No. 3, “Current Soviet Intentions,” August 24, 1946, in Kuhns, Assessing the Soviet Threat, 9. Special Study No. 3 is available online in the CIA FOIA Reading Room: https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84-00022R000200040021-6.pdf. On Turkey, see Melvyn P. Leffler, “National Security and US Foreign Policy,” in Origins of the Cold War: An International History, eds. Melvyn P. Leffler and David S. Painter (London: Routledge, 1994), 15–52.

62. 62 Special Study No. 3, “Current Soviet Intentions,” August 24, 1946, p. 2.

63. 63 Memorandum from Senior United States Army Member, PJBD, to PJBD, September 9, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 967, p. 1642.

64. 64 Memorandum from Senior United States Army Member, September 9, 1946, p. 1643.

65. 65 Memorandum from JPC to CSC, October 29, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 977, p. 1660. Emphasis in original.

66. 66 Ambassador in United States to USSEA, June 21, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 960, p. 1632.

67. 67 Ambassador in United States to USSEA, November 14, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 987, p. 1683. For American understanding of the Canadian need to be aware of the strategic concept, see Memorandum by the Assistant Chief of the Division of British Commonwealth Affairs (Parsons), November 12, 1946, FRUS, 1946, vol. V, The British Commonwealth, Western and Central Europe, doc. 38, pp. 63–65.

68. 68 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, November 12, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 983, p. 1671.

69. 69 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, November 12, 1946, p. 1672.

70. 70 Minutes of a Meeting of the CDC, November 13, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 984, p. 1674.

71. 71 Minutes of a Meeting of the CDC, November 13, 1946, p. 1675.

72. 72 J. W. Pickersgill and D. F. Forster, The Mackenzie King Record Volume 3, 1945/46 (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1970), 366–67.

73. 73 Pickersgill and Forster, The Mackenzie King Record, 369.

74. 74 Pickersgill and Forster, The Mackenzie King Record, 366–67.

75. 75 Pickersgill and Forster, The Mackenzie King Record, 369–70.

76. 76 Pickersgill and Forster, The Mackenzie King Record, 370.

77. 77 Statement by Minister of National Health and Warfare to Cabinet, November 15, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 988, p. 1684.

78. 78 Statement by Minister of National Health and Warfare to Cabinet, November 15, 1946, p. 1685.

79. 79 Statement by Minister of National Health and Warfare to Cabinet, November 15, 1946, p. 1685.

80. 80 Statement by Minister of National Health and Warfare to Cabinet, November 15, 1946, p. 1685.

81. 81 Statement by Minister of National Health and Warfare to Cabinet, November 15, 1946, p. 1686.

82. 82 Memorandum from Minister of National Defence to Prime Minister, January 7, 1947, DCER, vol. 13, doc. 866, p. 1482.

83. 83 Cabinet Conclusions, November 15, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 989, p. 1690.

84. 84 Cabinet Conclusions, November 15, 1946, p. 1691. The Canadians advised the Americans, informally, that they would prepare their own appreciation of Soviet intentions, and the US officers said they would welcome a Canadian assessment: Memorandum by Head, Third Political Division, November 26, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 993, p. 1700.

85. 85 Memorandum by Head, First Political Division, November 21, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 992, p. 1697.

86. 86 Memorandum by Head, First Political Division, November 21, 1946, 1697.

87. 87 Memorandum by Head, First Political Division, November 21, 1946, 1698.

88. 88 “Political Appreciation of the Objectives of Soviet Foreign Policy,” Appendix A, November 30, 1946, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00634. Also published in DCER, vol. 12, doc. 994, p. 1703.

89. 89 Memorandum by Head, Third Political Division, December 10, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 996, p. 1711.

90. 90 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, December 23, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 999, p. 1721.

91. 91 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, December 23, 1946, p. 1722. On reference to earlier disagreements, see Pope to Robertson, September 6, 1945, LAC, RG 25, 52-C(s).

92. 92 Minutes of a Meeting Between Representatives of Canada and the United States, December 21, 1946, DCER, vol. 12, doc. 998, p. 1714.

93. 93 Minutes of a Meeting Between Representatives, December 21, 1946, p. 1714.

94. 94 Minutes of a Meeting Between Representatives, December 21, 1946, p. 1715.

95. 95 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, December 23, 1946, p. 1723.

96. 96 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, December 23, 1946, p. 1723.

97. 97 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, December 23, 1946, p. 1723.

98. 98 Memorandum from USSEA to Prime Minister, December 23, 1946, p. 1721.

99. 99 Jensen, Cautious Beginnings, 142. A Joint Intelligence Staff was created for this purpose. For an early account of this document, see Lawrence Aronsen, “Preparing for Armageddon: JIC 1 (Final) and the Soviet Attack on Canada,” Intelligence and National Security 19, no. 3 (2004): 490–510, https://doi.org/10.1080/0268452042000316250.

100. 100 “Joint Intelligence Committee Strategic Appreciation,” March 15, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00645, p. 2.

101. 101 “Joint Intelligence Committee Strategic Appreciation,” March 15, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00645, p. 6.

102. 102 Memorandum for Mr. Pearson from Reid, February 13, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00639, p. 2.

103. 103 Memorandum for Mr. Pearson from Reid, February 13, 1947, p. 2.

104. 104 Untitled memo drafted by Crean, March 12, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00644.

105. 105 Excerpt from the 400th Meeting of the CSC, September 4, 1947, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 2, CDNW15267, p. 2; “Revisions of the Appreciation and the Basic Security Plan,” Memorandum by the Canada-United States Military Cooperation Committee, July 24, 1947, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 2, CDNW15258.

106. 106 “Canada-U.S. Defence Planning,” by H. N. Lay, July 16, 1947, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 2, CDNW15255, p. 2.

107. 107 Lay, quoting the JPC in a memorandum to the CSC, March 12, 1947, in “Canada-U.S. Defence Planning,” July 16, 1947, p. 2.

108. 108 “Canada-U.S. Defence Planning,” July 16, 1947, p. 2.

109. 109 Excerpt from the 400th Meeting of the CSC, September 4, 1947, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 2, CDNW15268, p. 2.

110. 110 “Canada-U.S. Defence Planning,” July 16, 1947, p. 3.

111. 111 Excerpt from the 406th Meeting of the CSC, October 14, 1947, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 2, CDNW15273, p. 1.

112. 112 Excerpt from the 406th Meeting of the CSC, October 14, 1947, p. 1.

113. 113 “The United States and the Soviet Union: A Study of the Possibility of War and Some of the Implications for Canadian Policy,” Memorandum by Escott Reid, August 30, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

114. 114 Maurice Pope to Lester Pearson, September 29, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

115. 115 Pope to Pearson, September 29, 1947.

116. 116 Memorandum for Mr. Teakles from Marcel Cadieux, October 17, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

117. 117 Dana Wilgress to Lester Pearson, November 6, 1946, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

118. 118 Wilgress to Pearson, November 6, 1946.

119. 119 Untitled and undated drafting notes from Ford, attached to his letter to Pearson of October 10, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

120. 120 Comments on Draft Memorandum of August 30, 1947, attached to RMM to Pearson, September 25, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

121. 121 Untitled comments sent from Ritchie in Paris, November 6, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

122. 122 Untitled comments sent from Ritchie in Paris, November 6, 1947.

123. 123 “Influences Shaping the Policy of the United States Towards the Soviet Union,” Memorandum by Hume Wrong, December 4, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

124. 124 “Comment on Draft Memorandum Dated August 30th Entitled ‘United States and the Soviet Union,’” December 3, 1947, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

125. 125 “Influences Shaping the Policy,” December 4, 1947.

126. 126 “Influences Shaping the Policy,” December 4, 1947.

127. 127 Memorandum for the USSEA from Reid, January 17, 1948, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s); Memorandum for the Prime Minister from USSEA, drafted by Reid on January 17, 1947, and sent from Pearson to SSEA on January 22, 1948, LAC, RG 25, 52-F(s).

128. 128 “Comment on Draft Memorandum,” December 3, 1947.

129. 129 “Canada-U.S. Basic Security Plan, Implementation Programme – Fiscal Year 1948–49,” Memorandum to Cabinet Defence Committee, October 20, 1947, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 2, CDNW15274, p. 1.

130. 130 “Canada-U.S. Basic Security Plan,” October 20, 1947, p. 1.

Notes to chapter 2

1. 1 Extracts from Minutes of Meeting of CSC and Minister of National Defence, January 22, 1948, DCER, vol. 14, doc. 954, p. 1567.

2. 2 Extracts from Minutes of Meeting of CSC, January 22, 1948, p. 1568.

3. 3 Extracts from Minutes of Meeting of CSC, January 22, 1948, p. 1568.

4. 4 Finletter, Thomas K., Survival in the Air Age: A Report by the President’s Sir Policy Commission (Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1948).

5. 5 Extracts from Minutes of Meeting of CSC, January 22, 1948, p. 1568.

6. 6 Excerpt from 414th Meeting of the CSC, February 12, 1948, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 2, CDNW15333, p. 1.

7. 7 Excerpt from 418th Meeting of the CSC, March 9, 1948, LAC, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15360, p. 1.

8. 8 Excerpt from 418th Meeting of the CSC, March 9, 1948, p. 1.

9. 9 “Review by the JIC of Appreciation of the Requirements for Canada-United States Security,” Memorandum by the Canada-United States Military Cooperation Committee, March 19, 1948, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15362, p. 1.

10. 10 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat to the Security of Canada and the United States,” JIC 3/48 (Final), May 3, 1948, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15365, p. 1.

11. 11 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948, p. 1

12. 12 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948, p. 2.

13. 13 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948, p. 3.

14. 14 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948, p. 3.

15. 15 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948, p. 6.

16. 16 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948, p. 7.

17. 17 Extract from 422nd Meeting of CSC, May 11, 1948, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15369. Emphasis added.

18. 18 “Appreciation for the Requirements of Canada-U.S. Security,” Secretary, JIC, to Secretary, CSC, May 6, 1948, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15366; Extract from 422nd Meeting of CSC, May 11, 1948.

19. 19 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948, p. 3.

20. 20 “Report on the Acceptability of the American Revisions to the Appreciation of the Requirements of Canada-United States Security dated 23rd May, 1946,” JIC 5/48 (Final), June 12, 1948, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15399, p. 2.

21. 21 “An Appreciation of the Possible Military Threat,” May 3, 1948.

22. 22 “Report on the Acceptability of the American Revisions,” June 12, 1948, p. 3.

23. 23 Extract from Minutes of Meeting of CDC, April 15, 1948, DCER, vol. 14, doc. 959, p. 1580.

24. 24 Extract from Minutes of Meeting of CDC, April 15, 1948, p. 1580.

25. 25 “J.I.S. Paper on the U.S.S.R.,” undated, attached to Excerpt from meeting of the 164th Meeting of the JIC, May 3, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 9042-34/0-1.

26. 26 “JIC Appreciation — Soviet Aims, Strategy and Capabilities,” Foulkes to USSEA, April 10, 1948, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00652, p. 1.

27. 27 “An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives in a War Beginning before July, 1949,” JIC 4/48 (Final), May 31, 1948, LAC, RG 25, 50028-B-40, part 1, CDIM00654, p. 3.

28. 28 “An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives,” May 31, 1948, p. 1.

29. 29 “An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives,” May 31, 1948, pp. 1–2.

30. 30 “An Outline of Soviet Capabilities and Strategic Objectives,” May 31, 1948, p. 2.

31. 31 Extract from Minutes of Meeting of CDC, June 2, 1948, DCER, vol. 14, doc. 960, p. 1582.

32. 32 Extract from Minutes of Meeting of CDC, June 2, 1948, p. 1581.

33. 33 Extract from Minutes of Meeting of CDC, June 2, 1948, p. 1582.

34. 34 “The Requirement for a Combined Canada-United States Long Term Strategic Estimate (Appreciation),” Secretary, Canadian Section, MCC, to Secretary, CSC, August 20, 1948, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15406. The Terms of Reference are attached to this document. CSC approval of the request is “Requirements for Combined Canada-U.S. Long-Term Strategic Estimate (Appreciation),” Acting Secretary, CSC, to Secretary, Canadian Section, MCC, August 31, 1948, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 1, CDNW15411.

35. 35 “Soviet Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action Against Canada, the United States, and the Areas Adjacent Thereto, 1949–1956,” ACAI 5 (Final), October 21, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29.

36. 36 “Report on the Preparation of an Agreed Canada-United States Strategic Appreciation,” Memorandum JIC 1-8-11 for the Joint Intelligence Committee, undated, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29.

37. 37 “Report on the Preparation of an Agreed Canada-United States Strategic Appreciation,” undated.

38. 38 “Report on the Preparation of an Agreed Canada-United States Strategic Appreciation,” undated.

39. 39 Memorandum for the Secretary, JIC, from Director of Naval Intelligence (hereafter DNI) Atwood, November 2, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29.

40. 40 “Report on the Preparation of an Agreed Canada-United States Strategic Appreciation,” undated.

41. 41 G. G. Crean to W. E. Todd, November 9, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29.

42. 42 Minutes of the 192nd Meeting of the JIC, November 5, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 1274-10, part 3.

43. 43 “Discrepancies in A.C.A.I. 5 (Final),” Memorandum to DNI, undated, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29.

44. 44 Minutes of the 192nd Meeting of the Joint Intelligence Committee, November 5, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 1274-10, part 3.

45. 45 Memorandum for the JIC from Secretary, JIC, December 3, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29.

46. 46 “Report on the Preparation of an Agreed Canada-United States Strategic Appreciation,” Memorandum for the JIC, December 15, 1948, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29.

47. 47 “American-British Agreed Intelligence,” Memorandum to Chiefs from Secretary, CSC, January 26, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29. See also Minutes of the 438th Meeting of the CSC, January 4, 1949, DHH/DND 2002/17, Box 74, File 10.

48. 48 “American-British Agreed Intelligence,” January 26, 1949.

49. 49 Todd to Crean, February 21, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2.

50. 50 Minutes of the 197th Meeting of the JIC, March 9, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1274-10, part 3.

51. 51 Minutes of the 197th Meeting of the JIC, March 9, 1949.

52. 52 Minutes of the 202nd Meeting of the JIC, May 18, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1274-10, part 4.

53. 53 Crean to Todd, April 7, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2; Crean to Todd, undated draft, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2.

54. 54 Todd to Crean, May 5, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2.

55. 55 Minutes of the 202nd Meeting of the JIC, May 18, 1949.

56. 56 “Agreed Canada-United States Intelligence Estimate (Appreciation), Request for” Secretary, JPC, to Secretary, JIC, through Secretary, CSC, May 13, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15423, p. 2.

57. 57 Jensen, Cautious Beginnings, 150–52. Kurt Jensen mentions some of the joint intelligence efforts in this era without naming them directly.

58. 58 “Canada-United States Basic Security Plan Progress Report No. 9,” Report by the JPC to the CSC, June 7, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15441.

59. 59 “Status of Canada-United States Basic Security Plan,” Memorandum for the members, PJBD, Canada-United States, from the Acting Chairman of the US Section, June 16, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15461, p. 1.

60. 60 Note from DNI Atwood, August 22, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2.

61. 61 Minutes of the 204th Meeting of the JIC, June 29, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-10, part 4.

62. 62 “ACAI 5/2,” Secretary, JIC, to Secretary, CSC, August 16, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2; JCS WAR 93017 [to Ennis], August 18, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2.

63. 63 “Memorandum for C.S.C.,” from Secretary JIC, July 12, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1480-29, part 2.

64. 64 “ACAI 5/2,” Acting Secretary, JIC, to Secretary, CSC, September 1, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15482. The agreed document is “Probable Soviet Courses of Action against Canada, the United States, and the Areas Adjacent Thereto, 1 Jan 1957,” ACAI 5/2, June 24, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1652:1, part 3, CDNW15471.

65. 65 Secretary, JIC, to Secretary, CSC, August 8, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 5-11-2, part 1. See also Crean to Todd, June 15, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17.

66. 66 Ministry of Defence [hereafter MOD] 622 to UKSLS, June 10, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17.

67. 67 JIC (40) 49th Meeting, May 13, 1949, NAUK, CAB 159/5.

68. 68 Crean to Todd, June 15, 1949.

69. 69 Crean to Todd, June 15, 1949.

70. 70 Crean to Todd, June 15, 1949.

71. 71 Crean to Todd, June 15, 1949.

72. 72 On developments in NATO before the Korean War, see Lawrence S. Kaplan, NATO before the Korean War: April 1949–June 1950 (Kent, OH: The Kent State University Press, 2013).

73. 73 Minutes of the 205th meeting of the JIC, July 20, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1274-10, part 4.

74. 74 Washington WA-1662 to External, June 17, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17.

75. 75 Todd to Crean, July 6, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17. Ultimately, tripartite efforts did not replace the ACAI process, which continued (and was later renamed “CANUS”).

76. 76 Todd to Crean, September 1, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17.

77. 77 In preparation of the conference, the British prepared a brief on a revision of the original document, also called “Soviet Intentions and Capabilities,” JIC (49)55, June 18, 1949, available from the subscription online resource “Secret Files from World Wars to Cold War,” published by Taylor and Francis.

78. 78 Directive to the JIS, from Acting Secretary, JIC, September 9, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17.

79. 79 Directive to the JIS, September 9, 1949.

80. 80 ABCI 6, Minutes of the 1st Meeting between the United Kingdom and Canadian Joint Intelligence Teams and the United States Joint Intelligence Committee, September 12, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1.

81. 81 “U.K.-U.S.-Canadian Intelligence Appreciation – ABCI.15,” Memorandum for the JIC from G/C W. W. Bean, September 30, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2.

82. 82 Crean to JIC, September 20, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1.

83. 83 ABCI 6, September 12, 1949.

84. 84 ABCI 6/1, Minutes of the 2nd Meeting between the United Kingdom and Canadian Joint Intelligence Teams and the United States JIC, September 12, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1. The working committees were named “Political,” “Economic,” “Scientific,” “Army,” “Navy,” “Air Force,” “Editorial,” and “Summary.”

85. 85 ABCI 6/1, September 12, 1949.

86. 86 ABCI 6/1, September 12, 1949.

87. 87 ABCI 6/1, September 12, 1949.

88. 88 ABCI 6/5, Minutes of the 6th Meeting between the United Kingdom and Canadian Joint Intelligence Teams and the United States Joint Intelligence Committee, September 20, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1.

89. 89 For “pressure,” see “U.K.-U.S.-Canadian Intelligence Appreciation – ABCI.15,” September 30, 1949; Notes on Draft Reply Suggested by the Chairman, JIC, undated, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1. CSC minutes on ABCI 15 (Bean’s report) are in DCER, vol. 15, doc. 917, p. 1564.

90. 90 ABCI 9, Memorandum by the Scientific Committee, September 14, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1.

91. 91 See opinion and dissent in “The Effect of the Soviet Possession of Atomic Bombs on the Security of the United States,” ORE 32–50, Central Intelligence Agency, June 9, 1950, CIA FOIA RR https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000258838.pdf.

92. 92 ABCI 6/8, Minutes of the 9th Meeting between the United Kingdom and Canadian Joint Intelligence Teams and the United States Joint Intelligence Committee, September 23, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1; ABCI 6/10, Minutes of the 11th Meeting between the United Kingdom and Canadian Joint Intelligence Teams and the United States Joint Intelligence Committee, September 27, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1.

93. 93 ABCI 15, September 27, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2; see also CANAWASH GI 161 to SECY JIC, September 23, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1; ABCI 7/1, Memorandum by the Co-Chairmen, September 16, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1.

94. 94 MOD Feudal 552 to JSM Washington and UKSLS, October 28, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2. See also Feudal 551 in same part.

95. 95 ABCI 15, September 27, 1949.

96. 96 ABCI 15, September 27, 1949.

97. 97 ABCI 7/2, Memorandum by the Co-Chairmen, September 17, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 1. The briefing committee consisted of four UK members, four US members, and one Canadian. See also “Agreed Action Between U.S.-U.K.-Canadian Planners,” enclosure to ABCM-18, Memorandum for the U.S.-U.K.-Canadian Planners, December 9, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 5:11:2, part 1.

98. 98 Kenneth W. Condit, History of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Policy, 1947–1949, vol. 2 (Washington, DC: Office of Joint History, Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1996), 154–60; Robert A. Wampler, “Ambiguous Legacy: The United States, Great Britain and the Foundations of NATO Strategy, 1948–1957” (PhD diss., Harvard University, 1991), 2–13. The Canadians noted that it was the “differences which have developed between the US and UK in discussion of defence problems connected with the Mediterranean area” that led to no agreed plan: “HICKORY – Short Range Emergency Plan,” Secretary, JPC, to Secretary, CSC, January 6, 1950, LAC, RG 24, CSC 5-11-2.

99. 99 “‘Bullmoose,’ ABC 101 and ABC 105,” March 16, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 5-11-2. ABC 105 superseded BULLMOOSE (ABC 101) and Canadians looked for a new code word.

100. 100 “Agreed Action Between U.S.-U.K.-Canadian Planners,” December 9, 1949.

101. 101 “Agreed Action Between U.S.-U.K.-Canadian Planners,” December 9, 1949.

102. 102 “Security Arrangements for Handling ABCI. 15,” Memorandum for JIC from the Secretary, December 13, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2.

103. 103 “ABC 109 and ABCI 15,” Secretary of the CSC to Chairman CSC and Chairman CJS (L), December 12, 1949, LAC, RG 24, CSC 5-11-2.

104. 104 Part I, dubbed JIC (UK)(49)80 (Final) in the UK, would be sent to the King’s printers for typing on February 6, 1950: “American-British-Canadian Agreed Intelligence: Soviet Intentions and Capabilities, 1950,” printed for His Majesty’s Government, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2.

105. 105 Lt-Col T. McCoy, A/DMI, to Secretary, JIC, October 19, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2.

106. 106 Lt-Col T. McCoy, A/DMI, to Secretary, JIC, October 19, 1949.

107. 107 “U.K.-U.S.-Canadian Intelligence Appreciation – ABCI.15,” September 30, 1949.

108. 108 “ABC Intelligence,” Draft memorandum from Secretary, JIC, to Secretary, CSC, undated [November 2, 1949], LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-2. The result was “Re-examination of Future Soviet Intentions as a Basis for Long-Term Planning,” undated paper sent to JIS under cover of memorandum from JIC Secretary, November 26, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17, CDIW00447.

109. 109 Memorandum to the Chairman, JIC, from Atwood, November 1, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17.

110. 110 Memorandum to the Chairman, JIC, from Atwood, November 1, 1949.

111. 111 Johnson to Bean, October 13, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17.

112. 112 “Revisions of ABC Intelligence,” Draft memorandum for CSC prepared by A/DMI, November 3, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-2.

113. 113 “ABCI. 15 – Disposition of Parts I and II,” Memorandum for the JIC from the Secretary, November 2, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2.

114. 114 McCoy, A/DMI, to Secretary, JIC, November 3, 1949, LAC, RG 24, 1272-17-1, part 2.

115. 115 Extract from Minutes of Meeting of CDC, December 23, 1949, DCER, vol. 15, doc. 918, pp. 1566–67.

116. 116 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary from MacKay, December 21, 1949, LAC, RG 25, 50266-40, part 1.

117. 117 Extract from Minutes of Meeting of CDC, December 22, 1949, DCER, vol. 15, doc. 919, p. 1569.

118. 118 “Re-examination of Future Soviet Intentions,” November 26, 1949.

119. 119 “Re-examination of Future Soviet Intentions,” November 26, 1949.

120. 120 “J.I.S. Format C.S.C. 1 (50) – Soviet Intentions as a Basis for Long Term Planning,” January 12, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00448, p. 2. Underline in original.

121. 121 “J.I.S. Format C.S.C. 1 (50),” January 12, 1950, pp. 2–3.

122. 122 “J.I.S. Format for a paper entitled ‘Soviet Intentions as a Basis for Long-Term Planning,’” Memorandum for Mr. MacKay from R. L. Rogers, January 30, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00450.

123. 123 “J.I.S. Format C.S.C. 1 (50),” January 12, 1950, p. 3.

124. 124 “J.I.S. Format for a paper entitled ‘Soviet Intentions as a Basis for Long-Term Planning,’” January 30, 1950.

125. 125 Memorandum for European Division from Defence Liaison [hereafter DL] (2) (R. L. Rogers), May 30, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00479, p. 1.

126. 126 “Soviet Intentions as a Basis for Long-Term Planning,” Col. Knight, DMI, to Secretary, JIC, January 31, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00453, p. 1.

127. 127 “Soviet Intentions as a Basis for Long-Term Planning,” January 31, 1950, p. 1.

128. 128 “JIS Draft Format Long-Term Paper,” Memorandum for Mr. R. L. Rogers from DL Division (R. A. MacKay), February 2, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00456, p. 1.

129. 129 Memorandum for Mr. MacDermot from R. A. MacKay, February 4, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00455, p. 1.

130. 130 Memorandum for MacDermot from MacKay, February 4, 1950.

131. 131 Memorandum for MacDermot from MacKay, February 4, 1950, p. 1.

132. 132 “JIS Draft Format Long-Term Paper,” February 2, 1950; Memorandum for DL from R. A. D. Ford, February 7, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00458; Memorandum to the Secretary, JIC, from DL Division, February 9, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00464.

133. 133 Handwritten note to Langille, undated, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00472.

134. 134 The UK paper is JIC (50)7 (Final), “The Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union and the Date by Which the Soviet Leaders Might be Prepared to Risk It,” March [date obscured], 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00003.

135. 135 “The Likelihood of War with the Soviet Union,” March [date obscured], 1950, p. 1.

136. 136 JIC (50) 28th Meeting, May 10, 1950, NAUK, CAB 159/7.

137. 137 Memorandum for Mr. Reid, Mr. Ritchie, and Mr. MacDermot from Glazebrook, May 8, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00001; Ritchie to Pearson, May 13, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00002.

138. 138 “The Likelihood and Circumstances of War with the Soviet Union,” May 20, 1950, JIS(JIB) draft, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00474, p. 1.

139. 139 “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War with the Soviet Union,” June 16, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, part 1, CDIW00481, pp. 1–2; see also discussion in “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War with the Soviet Union,” May 23, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00476.

140. 140 “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War,” June 16, 1950, p. 1.

141. 141 “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War with the Soviet Union,” Memorandum for DL from MacDermot (drafted by Ford), June 14, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00480, p. 2.

142. 142 “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War,” June 16, 1950, p. 4

143. 143 “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War,” June 16, 1950, p. 4.

144. 144 “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War,” June 14, 1950, p. 2.

145. 145 “Political Factors in the Likelihood of the Outbreak of War,” June 16, 1950, p. 6.

146. 146 Memorandum for Mr. Glazebrook from R. L. Rogers, June 19, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AP-40, CDIW00482.

Notes to chapter 3

1. 1 The Cabinet Conclusions from the first days of the war are fascinating. On June 26, the Cabinet asserted that Korea was of “minor strategic importance”: “Korea, report on recent developments,” June 26, 1950, LAC CC, RG 2, A-5-a, vol. 2645, p. 2. The next day, the Cabinet had heard more from the Americans and learned that the US view was that Moscow “had no desire to provoke a general conflict”: “Korea; U.S. policy,” June 27, 1950, LAC CC, RG 2, A-5-a, vol. 2645, p. 4.

2. 2 Excerpt from Minutes of the JIC’s 228th Meeting, July 5, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00004, p. 1.

3. 3 “Imminence of War,” July 6, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00005, p. 2. Although the paper was read at the meeting on July 5, the copy in the archives was re-typed and redistributed the next day, July 6.

4. 4 “Imminence of War,” July 6, 1950, p. 1.

5. 5 “Imminence of War,” July 6, 1950, p. 2.

6. 6 “Imminence of War,” July 6, 1950.

7. 7 “Imminence of War,” July 6, 1950, p. 3.

8. 8 Excerpt from Minutes of the JIC’s 229th Meeting, July 11, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00008, p. 1.

9. 9 “Defence Research - Strategic Questions,” Langley (DSI) to multiple addresses, July 14, 1950, LAC, RG 24, DRBS 2-1-172-10.

10. 10 Memorandum for Mr. R. A. MacKay from Menzies, July 14, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00011, p. 1.

11. 11 “The Imminence of War,” CSC 20(50), July 17, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00013; “C.S.C. Meeting 9:30 a.m., Tuesday, July 18th in the Office of the C.G.S.,” Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, July 17, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00015.

12. 12 “The Imminence of War,” CSC 20(50), July 17, 1950, p. 1.

13. 13 “The Imminence of War,” CSC 20(50), July 17, 1950, p. 2.

14. 14 “The Imminence of War,” CSC 20(50), July 17, 1950, p. 2.

15. 15 “The Imminence of War,” CSC 20(50), July 17, 1950, p. 3.

16. 16 “The Imminence of War,” CSC 20(50), July 17, 1950, p. 3.

17. 17 Excerpt from CSC Minutes of a Special Meeting, July 18, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00016, 1. Foulkes prepared these comments in the form of an addendum that could be inserted into the paper before it was approved and sent to the Cabinet Defence Committee the following day.

18. 18 Excerpt from CSC Minutes of a Special Meeting, July 18, 1950, p. 2.

19. 19 Excerpt from CSC Minutes of a Special Meeting, July 18, 1950, p. 2.

20. 20 The size of a US army division in 1950 ranged from 10,000 to 13,000 men, meaning Foulkes was anticipating that the UN required approximately 50,000 to 75,000 men. See Roy K. Flint, “Task Force Smith and the 24th Division: Delay and Withdrawal, 5–19 July 1950” in America’s First Battles, 1776–1965, eds. Charles E. Heller and William A. Stofft (Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, 1986), 269.

21. 21 Excerpt from CSC Minutes of a Special Meeting, July 18, 1950, p. 1.

22. 22 Excerpt from CSC Minutes of a Special Meeting, July 18, 1950, p. 1.

23. 23 Excerpt from CDC Minutes of the 65th Meeting held at 0930 hours, Wednesday, July 19, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00018, p. 1.

24. 24 Excerpt from CDC Minutes of the 65th Meeting held at 0930 hours, Wednesday, July 19, 1950, p. 2. See also “Korea; communication from the Secretary-General of the United Nations,” July 19, 1950, LAC CC, RG 2, A-5-a, vol. 2645.

25. 25 “Appreciation on the Imminence of War – Re-examination,” Aide Memoire prepared by Group Captain C. L. Annis, Chief Secretary of the Joint Staff, for Secretary, JIC, August 1, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00019, p. 1.

26. 26 “Appreciation on the Imminence of War — Re-examination,” August 1, 1950, p. 1.

27. 27 Extract from Minutes of the 233rd Meeting of the JIC, August 1 and 2, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00021.

28. 28 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, under cover of “Appreciation on the Imminence of War,” August 2, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00022, p. 1.

29. 29 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 3.

30. 30 Brief for CSC, DMI (Knight) to CGS (through BGS (Plans)), August 3, 1950, DHH/DND, 2002/17, Box 70, File 9.

31. 31 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 7.

32. 32 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 8.

33. 33 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 7.

34. 34 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 8.

35. 35 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 8.

36. 36 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 9.

37. 37 “Imminence of War,” CSC 22(50), August 2, 1950, p. 12.

38. 38 Excerpts from Minutes of the 469th Meeting of the CSC, August 3, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00029, p. 1.

39. 39 Excerpts from Minutes of the 469th Meeting of the CSC, August 3, 1950, p. 1.

40. 40 Excerpts from Minutes of the 469th Meeting of the CSC, August 3, 1950, p. 1.

41. 41 “Memorandum for the Joint Intelligence Committee,” September 19, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00032, p. 1.

42. 42 “Memorandum for the Joint Intelligence Committee,” September 19, 1950, 1.

43. 43 The final document is “The Imminence of War,” CSC 31(50), October 24, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00043. Other drafts and related correspondence from the LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, include: Memorandum for the JIS from Secretary, JIC, October 13, 1950, CDIM00036; “The Imminence of War,” JIS Draft CSC 31(50), October 13, 1950, CDIM00037; “The Imminence of War,” JIS Draft CSC 31(50), October 17, 1950, CDIM00038; Excerpt from Minutes of JIC’s 242nd Meeting, October 18, 1950, CDIM00039; “The Imminence of War,” JIC Appreciation, October 19, 1950, CDIM00041; and Memorandum to Secretary, JIC, from Pratt (DNI), October 16, 1950, LAC, RG 24, 1480-36, part 1.

44. 44 Memorandum for Mr. MacKay and Mr. Glazebrook from Eberts, November 13, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00056.

45. 45 Excerpt from Minutes of the 475th Meeting, CSC, November 21, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00059, p. 1.

46. 46 The historical record suggests that the first — Chinese apprehension about US moves — was correct, while the second — a coordinated plan to tie up US and UN forces — was not.

47. 47 Excerpt from Minutes of the 475th Meeting, November 21, 1950, p. 1.

48. 48 Minutes of the 2nd Meeting of the JISC, December 1, 1950, LAC, RG 24, 1274-10-9.

49. 49 Minutes of the 2nd Meeting of the JISC, December 1, 1950.

50. 50 “Message CJS(L)M305 of 12 December from General Foulkes for Mr. Claxton,” December 12, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00071, p.1.

51. 51 “Message CJS(L)M305 of 12 December from General Foulkes for Mr. Claxton,” December 12, 1950, p. 1.

52. 52 “Estimate of Soviet Intentions and Capabilities for Military Aggression,” Intelligence Memorandum 301, June 30, 1950, pp. 396–402; “The Korean Situation: Soviet Intentions and Capabilities,” Weekly Summary Excerpt, July 7, 1950, pp. 406–08; “Consequences of the Korean Incident,” Intelligence Memorandum 302, July 8, 1950, pp. 409–13; all in Kuhns, Assessing the Soviet Threat.

53. 53 JIC (50) 103rd Meeting, September 28, 1950, NAUK, CAB 159/8; Goodman, The Official History, 283. British officials credited themselves with moving Americans away from the conclusion that the Soviets were prepared to precipitate major war.

54. 54 Garthoff cites NIE-15, “Probable Soviet Moves to Exploit the Present Situation,” in “Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities,” 137.

55. 55 Canadian Ambassador in Washington despatch no. 3225 to SSEA, December 14, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00073.

56. 56 “The International Situation,” Memorandum to Cabinet, December 28, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00078, p. 1.

57. 57 See, for instance, Excerpt from Minutes of the JIC’s 249th Meeting, December 14, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00075; Memorandum by Joint Intelligence Committee, December 14, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00079.

58. 58 Memorandum for Mr. Fournier (European Division) from Ford, January 18, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00080, p. 1.

59. 59 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary from European Division, February 3, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00085, p. 1.

60. 60 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary from European Division, February 3, 1950, p. 1.

61. 61 Memorandum for Mr. MacKay from MacDermot (drafted by Ford), January 19, 1950, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00120, p. 1.

62. 62 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary from European Division, February 3, 1950, p. 1.

63. 63 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary from European Division, February 3, 1950, p. 2.

64. 64 “An Analysis of U.S. and U.K. Joint Intelligence Committee Estimates of Soviet Intentions and Capabilities, and Canadian comments thereon,” CSC 2(51), February 19, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00127.

65. 65 Memorandum for Mr. LePan drafted by Carter, January 17, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00123, p. 2.

66. 66 Memorandum for Mr. LePan drafted by Carter, January 17, 1951, p. 3.

67. 67 Memorandum for Mr. LePan drafted by Carter, January 17, 1951, p. 3.

68. 68 “Department of External Affairs Memorandum on Soviet Capabilities and Intentions,” January 29, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00126, p. 2.

69. 69 “Department of External Affairs Memorandum,” January 29, 1951, p. 3. Over the course of 1951, the Canadians judged that US and UK views were coming closer together. See “Likelihood of Total War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1954,” Note by the Secretaries of the [US] JIC, JIC 531/20, April 5, 1951, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1571:1, 1(TS), CDIM01739.

70. 70 “Department of External Affairs Memorandum,” January 29, 1951, p. 2.

71. 71 “Soviet Intentions and Capabilities,” Memorandum by Secretary, JIC, February 19, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00128, p. 2.

72. 72 “Canada-Defence,” Memorandum from the Director of the Joint Staff, April 10, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00092, p. 1.

73. 73 “The International Situation,” April 12, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00096, p. 2. This report set the form for future imminence of war papers going forward with a tour d’horizon of global hot spots.

74. 74 Memorandum for Mr. Carter from Hadwen, April 13, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00098, p.3.

75. 75 Memorandum for Mr. Pearson from D. V. Le Pan, April 6, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00090, p. 1.

76. 76 Memorandum for Mr. Pearson from D. V. Le Pan, April 6, 1951, p. 1.

77. 77 Memorandum for the Minister from Heeney, April 5, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00088, p. 1.

78. 78 Memorandum for Mr. Pearson from D. V. Le Pan, April 6, 1951, pp. 1–2.

79. 79 Memorandum for Mr. Glazebrook from Reid, April 28, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00107, and Memorandum for the Prime Minister from Pearson, May 17, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00145. For the paper itself, see “The Imminence of War,” Memorandum to the Cabinet, April 5, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00136; “The Imminence of War [draft],” April 30, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00137; and “Department of External Affairs Memorandum: The Imminence of War,” May 9, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 1, CDIM00140.

80. 80 Memorandum for Mr. Leger from DL(2) (Glazebrook), May 1, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00134.

81. 81 “Comments on Departmental Memorandum of May 9th on the Imminence of War,” drafted by B. A. W[allis]., June 2, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00158, p. 1.

82. 82 “Comments on Departmental Memorandum of May 9th,” June 2, 1951, p. 2.

83. 83 Canadian Ambassador in Washington, letter no. 2023 to USSEA, June 7, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00160, p. 1.

84. 84 “Comments on Departmental Memorandum of May 9th,” June 2, 1951, p. 2.

85. 85 Canadian Liaison Mission, Tokyo, letter no. 506 to USSEA, June 5, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00159, p. 1.

86. 86 Canadian Liaison Mission, Tokyo, letter no. 506 to USSEA, June 5, 1951.

87. 87 Canadian Ambassador, Brussels, letter no. 402 to USSEA, June 19, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00166, p. 1.

88. 88 Canadian Ambassador, Brussels, letter no. 402 to USSEA, June 19, 1951, p. 1.

89. 89 Canadian Ambassador, Brussels, letter no. 402 to USSEA, June 19, 1951, p. 1.

90. 90 Canadian Ambassador in Washington, letter no. 2023 to USSEA, June 7, 1951, p. 2.

91. 91 “Comments on the Department of External Affairs Memorandum ‘The Imminence of War,’” sent under cover of Canadian Embassy in Paris, letter no. 989 to USSEA, June 26, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00169, p. 1.

92. 92 The Canadian Embassy, Belgrade, letter no. 862 to USSEA, August 24, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00203, p. 3.

93. 93 The Canadian Embassy, Belgrade, letter no. 862 to USSEA, August 24, 1951, p. 3.

94. 94 “Comments on the Department of External Affairs Memorandum ‘The Imminence of War,’” June 26, 1951, p. 2.

95. 95 Quote is from “The Imminence of War,” First JIS Draft, July 19, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00182, p. 1. The actual first draft was “The Imminence of War,” DAI – External Draft, July 11, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00176.

96. 96 “The Imminence of War,” DAI – External Draft, July 11, 1951; Memorandum for Mr. Glazebrook from Carter, July 25, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00191.

97. 97 “The Imminence of War,” July 11, 1951, p. 1.

98. 98 “The Imminence of War,” July 11, 1951, p. 2.

99. 99 “The Imminence of War,” July 11, 1951, p. 2.

100. 100 “The Imminence of War,” July 11, 1951, p. 3.

101. 101 “The Imminence of War,” July 11, 1951, p. 5.

102. 102 “The Imminence of War,” JIC 20(51), July 20, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00184, p. 2.

103. 103 “The Imminence of War,” July 20, 1951, p. 2.

104. 104 “Chiefs of Staff Agenda Item No. 6 for 502nd Meeting on July 20, 1951,” Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, July 23, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00189, p. 1. The JIC, as always, refused to make a more precise statement “as to the time of greatest danger of war or the circumstances under which the Soviet Union would resort to war.”

105. 105 Extracts from Minutes of the 502nd Meeting of CSC, July 25, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00190, p. 1.

106. 106 Extracts from Minutes of the 502nd Meeting of CSC, July 25, 1951, p. 1.

107. 107 Memorandum for Mr. Glazebrook from Carter, July 25, 1951, p. 3.

108. 108 Extracts from Minutes of the 502nd Meeting of CSC, July 25, 1951, p. 1.

109. 109 Extracts from CSC Minutes of 505th Meeting, September 6 and 7, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00206, p. 2.

110. 110 Memorandum for the Secretary from DL(2), August 22, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00200, p. 1.

111. 111 Extracts from CSC Minutes of 505th Meeting, September 6 and 7, 1951, p. 2.

112. 112 Extracts from CSC Minutes of 505th Meeting, September 6 and 7, 1951, p. 1.

113. 113 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, Mr. Reid, Mr. Ritchie from DL(2) (Glazebrook), September 13, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00210, p. 1.

114. 114 Contrast “The Imminence of War,” JIC 20(51), July 25, 1951, with “The Current Risks of War,” JIC 23/2 (51), October 24, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00231.

115. 115 Memorandum for Mr. Wershof from R. A. J. Phillips, October 4, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00224.

116. 116 “The Imminence of War,” Memorandum for Mr. MacKay from McCordick, May 2, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00138, p. 1.

117. 117 “Likelihood of Total War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1954,” JIC (51)103 (Final), November 29, 1951, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1571:1, 1(TS), CDIM01834. For Canadian reactions, see Memorandum for Mr. Carter from DL(2) (Glazebrook), December 11, 1951, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 2, CDIM00242.

118. 118 “Likelihood of Total War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1954,” JIC (51)103 (Final), November 29, 1951, p. 3.

119. 119 Excerpt from Minutes of the 302nd Meeting of the JIC, January 23, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00273.

120. 120 Memorandum for European Divisions from DL(2), drafted by Wilgress, February 14, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00278.

121. 121 “Risks of General War in the Period 1952–1954,” [draft] February 11, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00277, p. 3.

122. 122 “Risks of General War in the Period 1952–1954,” February 11, 1952, p. 3.

123. 123 “Risks of General War in the Period 1952–1954,” February 11, 1952, p. 4.

124. 124 “Risks of General War in the Period 1952–1954,” February 11, 1952, p. 4.

125. 125 “Risks of General War in the Period 1952–1954,” February 11, 1952, p. 3.

126. 126 “The Current Risks of General War,” Memorandum for the JIC from Secretary, JIC, May 14, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00290, p. 1.

127. 127 “The Current Risks of General War,” JIC 42(52), March 29, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00285, p. 5; “deliberately” was added in “The Current Risks of General War,” JIC 42/2(52), May 9, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00289, p. 5.

128. 128 Memorandum for Mr. Glazebrook from Ritchie, May 30, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00293, p. 1.

129. 129 Memorandum for Mr. Glazebrook from Ritchie, May 30, 1952, p. 1.

130. 130 Memorandum for the JIC from Secretary, JIC, June 19, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00299; Memorandum for the JIC from Secretary, JIC, June 17, 1952, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1571:1, 1(TS), CDIM01859.

131. 131 “Likelihood of Total War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1954,” [UK] COS (52)285, May 28, 1952, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1571:1, 1(TS), CDIM01862, p. 2.

132. 132 “Likelihood of the Deliberate Initiation of Full-Scale War by the USSR against the US and Its Western Allies Prior to the End of 1952,” NIE 48, Central Intelligence Agency, January 8, 1952, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000269268.pdf. See also Garthoff, “Estimating Soviet Military Intentions and Capabilities,” 137.

133. 133 “Likelihood of the Deliberate Initiation of Full-Scale War by the USSR,” January 8, 1952.

134. 134 “Likelihood of the Deliberate Initiation of Full-Scale War by the USSR,” January 8, 1952.

135. 135 Memorandum for the JIC from Secretary, JIC, June 17, 1952.

136. 136 “A Critique of the NIE’s on the USSR,” Memorandum for the Consultants on National Estimates, February 15, 1952, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP79R00971A000400060060-1.pdf.

137. 137 “The Current Risks of General War,” CSC 3(52), July 3, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00301.

138. 138 Memorandum for the USSEA from DL(2), June 24, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00300, p. 1.

139. 139 Extract from Minutes of the 526th Meeting of the CSC, July 3, 1952, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1571:1, 1(TS), CDIM01867, p. 1.

140. 140 Extract from Minutes of the 526th Meeting of the CSC, July 3, 1952, p. 1.

141. 141 Memorandum for the JIC from Secretary, JIC, September 18, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00306, p. 1.

142. 142 “Review of the Risks of War,” JIC 58(52), September 19, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00307.

143. 143 Memorandum for the JIC, from Secretary, JIC, October 21, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00313.

144. 144 Memorandum for Mr. Charles Ritchie from Glazebrook, October 24, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00315, p. 1.

145. 145 Memorandum for the JIC, from Secretary, JIC, October 21, 1952, p. 1.

146. 146 Memorandum for the JIC, from Secretary, JIC, October 21, 1952, p. 1.

147. 147 SSEA no. 427 to Permanent Representative of Canada to the North Atlantic Council, Paris, October 16, 1952, LAC, RG 2, I-60, part 1952. See also Memorandum for the JIC, from Secretary, JIC, October 21, 1952, p. 1.

148. 148 Minutes of the 327th Meeting of the JIC, October 23, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00314, p. 1. Glazebrook was also concerned with the question of evidence: Memorandum for Mr. Charles Ritchie from Glazebrook, October 24, 1952.

149. 149 Memorandum for DL(2) Division from Far Eastern Division, November 1, 1952, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00317, p. 1.

150. 150 Memorandum for DL(2) Division from Far Eastern Division, November 1, 1952, p. 2.

151. 151 Memorandum for DL(2) Division from Far Eastern Division, November 1, 1952, p. 1.

152. 152 “The Current Risks of General War,” JIC 64/2(53), February 4, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1571:1, 2(TS), CDIM01909, p. 1.

153. 153 “The Current Risks of General War,” JIC 64/1(53), January 27, 1953, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00327, p. 1.

154. 154 “The Current Risks of General War,” February 4, 1953, p. 2.

155. 155 Memorandum for Mr. Glazebrook from Cameron, January 29, 1953, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00329, p. 1.

156. 156 Memorandum for the USSEA from DL(2), February 17, 1953, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 3, CDIM00338, p. 2.

157. 157 “The Likelihood of General War,” JIC 79(53), June 29, 1953, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 4, CDIM00373.

158. 158 Extract from Minutes of the 359th Meeting of the JIC, October 14, 1953, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 4, CDIM00379.

159. 159 Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1955,” [UK] JIC 53(79) (Final), September 10, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1571:1, 2(TS), CDIM01964, p. 1.

160. 160 “Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1955,” [UK] JIC 53(79) (Final), September 10, 1953, p. 3.

161. 161 “The Current Risks of General War,” JIC 79/3(53), November 9, 1953, LAC, RG 25, 50028-AK-40, part 4, CDIM00382, p. 3.

162. 162 “The Current Risks of General War,” JIC 79/3(53), November 9, 1953, p. 3.

163. 163 “Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1955,” September 10, 1953, p. 5.

164. 164 “Likelihood of General War with the Soviet Union up to the End of 1955,” September 10, 1953, p. 5.

Notes to chapter 4

1. 1 Minutes of the 2nd Meeting of the JISC, December 1, 1950, LAC, RG 24, 1274-10-9. On the JIC’s decision to move forward periodic “imminence papers,” see Minutes of the 247th Meeting of the JIC, December 9, 1950, LAC, RG 24, 1216-J2-2, part 3.

2. 2 This story, and its possibly apocryphal nature, is recorded in Cynthia M. Grabo, “A Handbook of Warning Intelligence,” vol. 1 (Defense Intelligence Agency, July 1972), p. 1-5, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80B00829A000800040001-6.pdf.

3. 3 Thomas G. Belden, ed., “The National Indications Center and the Warning Process (U)” (Institute for Defense Analyses Systems Evaluation Division, July 1969), 40, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP81B00493R000100110006-5.pdf.

4. 4 Goodman, The Official History, 260. The relationship between the “check list” and these indicator lists (i.e., how and if they travelled from the field to the central machinery) is unclear and more research is required.

5. 5 Secretary of State’s Special Assistant for Research and Intelligence (Armstrong) to Director of Central Intelligence Hillenkoetter, July 29, 1949, FRUS, 1945–1950, Emergence of the Intelligence Establishment, doc. 391, p. 991.

6. 6 “Agenda for IAC Meeting 19 August,” Memorandum for the Director from Prescott Childs, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP67-00059A000200030041-1.pdf.

7. 7 “Watch Committee,” Memorandum for Participating IAC Agencies Only,” September 26, 1949, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80R01731R003600050026-4.pdf.

8. 8 Memorandum from Director of Central Intelligence Hillenkoetter to the Director of Intelligence of the Army General Staff (Irwin), February 15, 1950, FRUS, 1945–1950, Emergence of the Intelligence Establishment, doc. 414, p. 1063. Emphasis in the original.

9. 9 NSCID No. 1 as originally adopted by the NSC on December 12, 1947, is printed in Michael Warner, ed., CIA Cold War Records, The CIA Under Harry Truman (Washington, DC: History Staff, Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1994), 169–71, https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/CIA-Under-Harry-Truman-CIA-Documents-1994-Part-II-CIA-Hillenkoetter.pdf.

10. 10 “Proposed Watch Committee,” Memorandum for the Director of Central Intelligence, January 20, 1950, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80R01731R003600050015-6.pdf. Note that the Army’s suggestions seemed to confuse the estimative and indicative goals, and seems, at least according to the marginalia on the copy in the CIA files, to misrepresent the purpose and function of the Check List Group.

11. 11 Draft of “Proposed Watch Committee,” Memorandum for the Director of Intelligence, General Staff, United States Army, February 13, 1950, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80R01731R003600050025-5.pdf.

12. 12 Letter from the Department of State Member of the Standing Committee (Trueheart) to the Chief of the Coordination, Operations, and Policy Staff of the CIA (Childs), March 29, 1950, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 3, p. 5.

13. 13 “Proposed Interagency Operating Procedure,” March 6, 1950, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp61s00750a000100020092-6.

14. 14 “Organizational History of the Central Intelligence Agency, 1950–1953,” DCI Historical Series, May 1957, Chapter VIII, p. 47. Available online at https://archive.org/details/CIAHistory195053.

15. 15 “Watch Committee,” Memorandum for Executive, November 8, 1950, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP78-04718A000100320069-2.pdf.

16. 16 Fact Sheet, November 8, 1951, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 91, p. 209.

17. 17 Intelligence Advisory Committee, “Minutes of Meeting held in Director’s Conference Room, Administration Building, Central Intelligence Agency, on 30 August 1951,” August 30, 1951, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP82-00400R000100030013-9.pdf.

18. 18 Goodman, The Official History, 179.

19. 19 Goodman, The Official History, 179–80.

20. 20 Extract from the Minutes of the 303rd Meeting of the JIC, January 30, 1952, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00505, p. 1.

21. 21 “Indications of Attack,” Memorandum for the JIC, January 25, 1952, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00511, p. 1.

22. 22 “War Room Policy,” February 3, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00580, p. 4.

23. 23 “Proposed Changes in Organization and Functioning of the IAC Watch Committee,” author sanitized, October 28, 1952, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP91T01172R000400060005-8.pdf.

24. 24 “IAC Action and Discussion of the Watch Committee Problem,” Memorandum for Assistant Director/Current Intelligence, October 9, 1953, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP61S00750A000100120215-8.pdf.

25. 25 National Security Council Report, February 10, 1953, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 146, p. 417. Italics in original.

26. 26 “Proposed Statement to the IAC Re the Watch Committee,” Memorandum for Director of Central Intelligence from Deputy Director/Intelligence, October 5, 1953, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP94T00754R000100060001-4.pdf; “IAC Action and Discussion of the Watch Committee Problem,” October 9, 1953.

27. 27 Belden, “The National Indications Center and the Warning Process,” 49.

28. 28 Belden, “The National Indications Center and the Warning Process,” 47; “Responsibility for Warning and Evolution of a ‘Warning System,’” Memorandum for Director of Central Intelligence from John J. Bird, National Intelligence Officer for Warning, December 24, 1985, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP87M00539R002103340001-5.pdf. Note that there was considerable discussion and disagreement within the ad hoc committee about the value of mechanical systems like the “indications board.” See also “IAC Action and Discussion of the Watch Committee Problem,” Memorandum for Assistant Director/Current Intelligence, October 9, 1953, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP61S00750A000100120215-8.pdf.

29. 29 Report to the National Security Council [hereafter NSC] by the Executive Secretary (Lay) [NSC 162/2], October 30, 1953, FRUS, 1952–1954, vol. II, part 1, National Security Affairs, doc. 101, p. 582.

30. 30 Minutes of a Meeting of the Intelligence Advisory Committee, May 4, 1954, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 175, p. 492.

31. 31 “The ‘Net Estimates’ Problem,” Paper Prepared in the CIA, August 25, 1954, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 189, p. 530.

32. 32 Memorandum of Discussion at the 209th Meeting of the NSC, August 5, 1954, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 187, p. 517.

33. 33 “National Security Council Report,” March 2, 1955, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 209.

34. 34 Memorandum by the Intelligence Advisory Committee, November 23, 1954, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 197.

35. 35 Extract from the Minutes of the 339th Meeting of the JIC, March 11, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00530, p. 1.

36. 36 Extract from the Minutes of the 339th Meeting of the JIC, March 11, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00530, p .1.

37. 37 Extract from the Minutes of the 339th Meeting of the JIC, March 11, 1953, p. 1.

38. 38 Extract from the Minutes of the 348th Meeting of the JIC, June 4, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00533, p. 1.

39. 39 Extract from the Minutes of the 348th Meeting of the JIC, June 4, 1953, p. 2.

40. 40 Extract from the Minutes of the 348th Meeting of the JIC, June 4, 1953, p. 1.

41. 41 Extract from the Minutes of the 362nd Meeting of the JIC, November 9, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00545, p. 1.

42. 42 “Indications of War,” Memorandum for the JIC, October 23, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00543, p. 1.

43. 43 “Indications of War,” December 8, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00550, p. 1.

44. 44 “The ‘Indications’ Project,” JIC 89(53), December 3, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00550, p. 1.

45. 45 “The ‘Indications’ Project,” December 3, 1953, p. 3.

46. 46 “Indications of War,” October 23, 1953; “Indications of War,” December 8, 1953.

47. 47 Extract from the Minutes of the 367th Meeting of the JIC, December 22, 1953, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00552, p. 2.

48. 48 Extract from the Minutes of the 367th Meeting of the JIC, December 22, 1953, p. 1.

49. 49 “United States Indications Intelligence Project,” Memorandum for the JIC, March 9, 1954, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00555, p. 2.

50. 50 “United States Indications Intelligence Project,” March 9, 1954, p. 2.

51. 51 “United States Indications Intelligence Project,” March 9, 1954, p. 3.

52. 52 Extract from the Minutes of the 374th Meeting of the JIC, March 17, 1954, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00556, p. 1. Crean did not think a filing system to be as problematic as wall-mounted boards because the cards could be re-evaluated.

53. 53 Extract from the Minutes of the 377th Meeting of the JIC, March 31, 1954, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00557, p. 1.

54. 54 “Arrangements for Weekly Intelligence Briefings,” Directive for the JIS, April 29, 1954, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00561, p. 1. Note that here the issue of “indications” and “current intelligence” are conflated; the US had sought to avoid conflation of these issues.

55. 55 “Arrangements for Weekly Intelligence Briefings,” April 29, 1954, p. 2.

56. 56 Crean to Dulles, November 29, 1954, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00568; “New Terms of Reference – US Watch Committee,” from DMI, October 21, 1954, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00003.

57. 57 Crean to Dulles, November 29, 1954.

58. 58 Dulles to Crean, undated, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00577.

59. 59 It is conceivable and likely that a specific incident touched off Crean’s concerns, but the currently available record does not suggest any particular moment. The first Taiwan Straits crisis of August 1954 is one possible answer.

60. 60 Crean to Dean, November 29, 1954, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00005, p. 1.

61. 61 Crean to Dean, November 29, 1954, pp. 1–2. Crean raised his point with specific reference to communication intelligence or COMINT “alerts.” The National Security Agency [hereafter NSA] had apparently implemented a COMINT Alert System with four levels of alerts in 1953. Little is known about these alerts except that some levels direct US COMINT units to keep their targets under continuous analysis. CBNRC and GCHQ, it seems, were a part of this system and received both the alerts and intelligence information generated by the alerts through COMINT channels. See generally “The Suez Crisis: A Brief Comint History (U),” United States Cryptologic History, Special Series Crisis Collection Volume 2, Office of Archives and History, National Security Agency/Central Security Service, 1988,https://www.nsa.gov/news-features/declassified-documents/cryptologic-histories/assets/files/Suez_Crisis.pdf.

62. 62 Crean to Dean, November 29, 1954, p. 2.

63. 63 Crean to Dean, November 29, 1954, p. 2.

64. 64 Dean to Crean, December 8, 1954, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00008, p. 1.

Notes to chapter 5

1. 1 “Summary of M.C. 48 (Final),” attached to Memorandum from Head, DL(1) Division, to USSEA, December 2, 1954, DCER, vol. 20, doc. 365, p. 748.

2. 2 “Summary of M.C. 48 (Final),” December 2, 1954, p. 748.

3. 3 “Future NATO Defence Planning in Light of the Effect of New Weapons,” SSEA no. 940 to Permanent Representative to North Atlantic Council, December 6, 1954, DCER, vol. 20, doc. 366, p. 751.

4. 4 “Future NATO Defence Planning in Light of the Effect of New Weapons,” SSEA no. 992 to Permanent Representative to North Atlantic Council, December 15, 1954, DCER, vol. 20, doc. 378, p. 770.

5. 5 “Future NATO Defence Planning,” December 6, 1954, pp. 751–752.

6. 6 “Future NATO Defence Planning,” December 6, 1954, p. 752; “Future NATO Defence Planning in Light of the Effect of New Weapons,” SSEA no. 941 to the Permanent Representative to the North Atlantic Council, December 6, 1954, DCER, vol. 20, doc. 367, p. 753.

7. 7 “Future Pattern of Military Strength,” Memorandum by SSEA, December 16, 1954, DCER, vol. 20, doc. 379, p. 771; Memorandum of Conversation, by the Director of the Policy Planning Staff (Bowie), December 16, 1954, FRUS, 1952–1954, vol. V, part 1, Western European Security, doc. 287.

8. 8 “Future Pattern of Military Strength,” December 16, 1954, p. 771.

9. 9 The fourth state was likely France, who the British and Americans frequently excluded from discussions involving nuclear matters because of security fears.

10. 10 “Communiqué issued at the Conclusion of the Truman-Attlee Discussions,” attached to United States Delegation Minutes of the 6th Meeting of President Truman and Prime Minister Attlee, December 8, 1950, in FRUS, 1950, vol. VII, Korea, doc. 1007.

11. 11 “Memorandum of a Conversation with Sir Anthony Eden, Paris, December 19, 1954,” Memorandum by SSEA, December 19, 1954, DCER, vol. 20, doc. 380, p. 773.

12. 12 “‘Alert’ Procedures,” USSEA to High Commissioner in United Kingdom, January 25, 1955, DCER, vol. 21, doc. 168, p. 329. A Canadian representative had been invited to attend the JIC (London) meeting, but Crean declined as there was not adequate time to brief the Canadian JIC representative in London. See Crean to Robertson, January 11, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00014.

13. 13 “Alerts,” Memorandum for the JIC, January 19, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00015, p. 1. This is a Canadian document that includes a lengthy excerpt from the minutes of a UK JIC meeting.

14. 14 [UK] MOD London to UKSLS Ottawa, January 12, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00013.

15. 15 “Arrangements for the Evaluation of Indicators of Soviet Preparations for Early War,” Annex to “U.K. Intelligence Alert Measures,” [UK] JIC/256/55, January 26, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00595, pp. 2–4.

16. 16 “U.K. Intelligence Alert Measures,” Memorandum for the JIC, March 3, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00596, p. 1.

17. 17 “Alerts,” January 19, 1955, p. 1.

18. 18 “Alerts,” January 19, 1955, 2.

19. 19 “Arrangements for the Evaluation of Indicators,” January 26, 1955, 2.

20. 20 “Alerts,” January 19, 1955, p. 2.

21. 21 “Arrangements for the Evaluation of Indicators,” January 26, 1955, p. 2.

22. 22 “Alerts,” January 19, 1955, p. 1.

23. 23 “U.K. Intelligence Alert Measures,” January 26, 1955, p. 1.

24. 24 “Alerts,” January 19, 1955, p. 3.

25. 25 “Arrangements for the Evaluation of Indicators,” January 26, 1955, p. 4.

26. 26 “Alerts,” January 19, 1955, p. 3.

27. 27 Timothy Andrews Sayle, “A Pattern of Constraint: Canadian-American Relations in the Early Cold War,” International Journal, 62, no. 3 (2007): 689–705, https://doi.org/10.1177/002070200706200316. For a short chapter that places the tripartite alert agreements in this pattern, see Greg Donaghy, “Nukes and Spooks: Canada-US Intelligence Sharing and Nuclear Consultations, 1950–1958,” in Transnationalism: Canada-United States History into the 21st Century, eds. Michael D. Behiels and Reginald C. Stuart (Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2010).

28. 28 Crean to Robertson, January 11, 1955, p. 1.

29. 29 Crean to Robertson, January 11, 1955, p. 2.

30. 30 Untitled draft or partial draft of document, by Crean, January 10, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00012, p. 2.

31. 31 Untitled draft or partial draft of document, by Crean, January 10, 1955, p. 1.

32. 32 Untitled draft or partial draft of document, by Crean, January 10, 1955, p. 2.

33. 33 Untitled draft or partial draft of document, by Crean, January 10, 1955, p. 3. The Canadians learned that the British had been considering that “responsibility for coming to a decision as to the reality of an all-out attack should rest with the two Senior Intelligence Officers in Germany of the United Kingdom and the United States” who would send pre-arranged signals to their governments: USSEA to High Commissioner in United Kingdom, January 25, 1955, DCER, vol. 21, doc. 168, p. 330.

34. 34 Untitled draft or partial draft of document, by Crean, January 10, 1955, p. 3.

35. 35 Canadian typed copy of UK paper “Possible Stages of Action When Indications of Major Russian Aggression Are Received in Good Time,” undated, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00582, p. 1.

36. 36 “Possible Stages of Action,” undated, p. 1.

37. 37 “Possible Stages of Action,” undated, p. 2.

38. 38 “[Canadian] JIC Brief on [UK paper titled] Possible Stages of Action when Indications of Major Russian Aggression are Received in Good Time,” JIC 132(55), February 17, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00585, p. 2.

39. 39 Extract from the Minutes of the Special Meeting of the Chiefs of Staff Committee held on February 18, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00592, p. 1.

40. 40 “[Canadian] JIC Brief on [UK paper titled] Possible Stages of Action,” February 17, 1955, p. 2. On a war with China, see “Problems which might be posed for Canada, if the United States were to become involved in hostilities over the Chinese offshore islands,” External Affairs Draft for Discussion Purposes, February 17, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 50219-AE-40, part 1, CDNW00615. On Canadian concerns about war in the Pacific, see Samuel Eberlee, “Danger in the Asia-Pacific: Canadian Intelligence Analysis and the ‘Imminence’ of World War, 1950–1959,” Master of Arts Directed Research Paper, University of Toronto, 2021.

41. 41 SSEA no. 290 to London, February 17, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00604, p. 1.

42. 42 SSEA no. 290 to London, February 17, 1955, p. 2.

43. 43 High Commission (London) [hereafter HICLON] no. 250 to SSEA, February 28, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00602, p. 2.

44. 44 HICLON no. 250 to SSEA, February 28, 1955, p. 1.

45. 45 HICLON no. 251 to SSEA, February 28, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00601.

46. 46 HICLON no. 250 to SSEA, February 28, 1955.

47. 47 SSEA no. 411 to London, March 10, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00600, p. 1.

48. 48 SSEA no. 411 to London, March 10, 1955, p. 3.

49. 49 HICLON no. 397 to SSEA, March 25, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00613.

50. 50 Letter from Director of Central Intelligence Dulles to the Director of the Bureau of the Budget (Hughes), June 25, 1955, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 228, p. 713.

51. 51 National Security Council Report, August 31, 1955, FRUS, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, doc. 234, p. 720.

52. 52 National Security Council Report, August 31, 1955, p. 721.

53. 53 National Security Council Report, August 31, 1955, p. 722.

54. 54 “War Room,” Comments on Para. 9(a), undated, LAC, RG 24, 1480-36, CDIW00695, p. 1.

55. 55 “War Room,” Memorandum from DDNI to DNI, February 15, 1955, LAC, RG 24, 1480-36, CDIW00696, p. 1.

56. 56 “National Indications Center,” Defence Research Member to Direct, JIB, March 9, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00606.

57. 57 “National Indications Center,” under cover of distribution memo, from Director, JIB, February 1, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00020.

58. 58 “National Indications Center,” March 9, 1955.

59. 59 “National Indications Center,” March 9, 1955, p. 2.

60. 60 “National Indications Center,” March 9, 1955, pp. 2–3.

61. 61 “National Indications Center,” March 9, 1955, p. 3.

62. 62 “National Indications Center,” March 9, 1955, p. 3.

63. 63 “National Indications Center,” March 9, 1955.

64. 64 Extract from the Minutes of the 432nd Meeting of the JIC, March 16, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00607. The relationship between JIC 89(53) and this discussion is not yet clear.

65. 65 “Indications Intelligence,” JIC 135/1(55), March 21, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00610.

66. 66 “Indications Intelligence,” March 21, 1955, 2.

67. 67 “Indications Intelligence,” March 21, 1955, 2.

68. 68 “Indications Intelligence,” March 21, 1955, 2.

69. 69 Wesley Wark, “‘Favourable Geography’: Canada’s Arctic Signals Intelligence Mission,” Intelligence and National Security 35, no. 3 (2020): 319–30, https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2020.1724629.

70. 70 Extract from the Minutes of the 436th Meeting of the JIC, April 6, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00619.

71. 71 Crean to Ignatieff, July 7, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00022, p. 1. For more detailed discussions of Merchant/Dean conversation, see Dean to Crean, July 29, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00024.

72. 72 Canadian Embassy, Washington [hereafter EmbWA] no. WA-1278 to SSEA, July 28, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00626.

73. 73 Crean to Dean, July 15, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00023.

74. 74 Uren to Bowen, July 22, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00025, p. 1. For the Pentagon-CIA spat, see “Alerts Procedures,” Ignatieff to USSEA, October 28, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00028.

75. 75 Uren to Bowen, July 22, 1955, p. 2.

76. 76 Ambassador in United States to USSEA, October 25, 1955, DCER, vol. 21, doc. 183, p. 345.

77. 77 SSEA no. 1341 to Washington and London, July 27, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00625, p. 1.

78. 78 Since 1951, Canada and the United States held regular meetings of consultation on the threat of atomic war as one element of the American promise to consult Canada (time permitting) on the use of atomic weapons.

79. 79 Léger to Foulkes, September 27, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00027, p. 2.

80. 80 “Alerts Procedures,” Memorandum from Ignatieff to USSEA, October 28, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00028, p. 1.

81. 81 Copy of “Aide-Memoire,” Department of State, November 18, 1955, attached to a draft letter to Robertson, December 20, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00034, pp. 8–11.

82. 82 Crean to Glazebrook, December 30, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00039, p. 2. Indeed, there is a hint that the president himself directed a review of intelligence sharing with the British and Canadians. This is an avenue for further research.

83. 83 Glazebrook to Crean, November 19, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00031, p. 1.

84. 84 “Aide-Memoire,” November 18, 1955.

85. 85 Glazebrook to Crean, November 19, 1955, p.1.

86. 86 Extract from the Minutes of the 468th Meeting of the JIC, November 30, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00628.

87. 87 “Aide-Memoire,” November 18, 1955, p. 3.

88. 88 “Aide-Memoire,” Department of State, November 18, 1955.

89. 89 Glazebrook to Crean, November 19, 1955, p. 1.

90. 90 Crean to Glazebrook, December 30, 1955, p. 1.

91. 91 “Meeting of Consultation – December 5, 1955,” Memorandum for the Minister from USSEA, November 30, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00033, p. 3.

92. 92 “Meeting of Consultation – December 5, 1955,” November 30, 1955, p. 2.

93. 93 “Meeting of Consultation – December 5, 1955,” November 30, 1955, p. 3.

94. 94 “Meeting of Consultation – December 5, 1955,” November 30, 1955, p. 5.

95. 95 Copy of EmbWA no. 2044 to External Ottawa [hereafter EXTOT], December 15, 1955, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00035, p. 2.

96. 96 Glazebrook to Crean, January 25, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00043, p. 2.

97. 97 Glazebrook to Crean, January 25, 1956, p. 3.

98. 98 Glazebrook to Crean, January 25, 1956, p. 3.

99. 99 Uren would become the first JIC Liaison Officer Washington (JICLO(W)) in 1957 but was already serving in Washington.

100. 100 Glazebrook to Crean, January 25, 1956, p. 4.

101. 101 Glazebrook to Crean, January 25, 1956, p. 5.

102. 102 Copy of “Memorandum on Intelligence Procedures Related to Alerts: Discussions in Washington,” February 15, 1956, attached to Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, February 23, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00048, p. 3.

103. 103 “Memorandum on Intelligence Procedures Related to Alerts,” February 15, 1956, p. 5.

104. 104 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, February 23, 1956, p. 1.

105. 105 “Memorandum for File,” February 20, 1956, attached to Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, February 23, 1956, p. 8.

106. 106 “Memorandum for File,” February 20, 1956, p. 7.

107. 107 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, February 23, 1956, p. 1.

108. 108 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, February 23, 1956, p. 2.

109. 109 “Exchange of Indications Between USA and Canada,” Aide Memoire, G/C R. B. Ingalls, DAI, March 9, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00054, p. 1.

110. 110 “Chiefs of Staff Meeting, Monday, March 19,” from DL(2) to R. M. Macdonnell, March 16, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00059.

111. 111 Extract from Cabinet Defence Committee Minutes, Meeting 109 – April 19, 1956 – Item I, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00067, p. 1.

112. 112 Memorandum for Cabinet Defence Committee, March 8, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00056, p. 3.

113. 113 “Alerts,” Memorandum for the Minister from USSEA, March 7, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00053.

114. 114 “Procedures for Consultation on Alerts,” Memorandum for the Minister, February 19, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00100.

115. 115 EmbWA no. 682 to SSEA, May 14, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00081.

116. 116 “Alerts,” Memorandum from Crean to Ignatieff, October 16, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00096; USSEA no. DL-[original damaged] to EmbWA, September [original damaged], 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00091.

117. 117 USSEA no. DL-546 to EmbWA, May 14, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00079.

118. 118 USSEA no. 711 to EmbWA, May 18, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00083, p. 1.

119. 119 “Proposed Tripartite Discussions on Alerts,” USSEA no. DS-1243 to HICLON, September 26, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00094, p. 2.

120. 120 “Alerts Procedures,” Ignatieff to Bryce, August 24, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00089, p. 1; “Proposed Tripartite Discussions on Alerts,” September 26, 1956.

121. 121 On the context of the Thor deployment, see Matthew Jones, The Official History of the UK Strategic Nuclear Deterrent: Volume 1: From the V-Bomber to the Arrival of Polaris, 1945–1964 (London: Routledge, 2017), 96-154.

122. 122 “Tripartite Discussions on Alerts,” Macdonnell to Foulkes, February 22, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00101, p. 2.

123. 123 External no. DS-60 to London, March 6, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00109, p. 1.

124. 124 External no. DS-60 to London, March 6, 1957, p. 2.

125. 125 External no. DS-60 to London, March 6, 1957, p. 3.

126. 126 EXTOT no. DS-50 for HICLON, February 25, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00103. See also EXTOT no. DS-51 for HICLON, “Draft Formula for Exchanging Intelligence Relating to Alerts in the NATO Area between the United States, United Kingdom and Canadian Governments,” February 25, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00104.

127. 127 EXTOT no. DS-51 for HICLON, February 25, 1957, p. 1.

128. 128 EXTOT no. DS-51 for HICLON, February 25, 1957, p. 2.

129. 129 London no. 364 to External, February 28, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00106, p. 1.

130. 130 London no. 364 to External, February 28, 1957, p. 2.

131. 131 External DS-60 to London, March 6, 1957, p. 2.

132. 132 London no. 413 to External, March 8, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00111, p. 1.

133. 133 London no. 439 to External, March 12, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00112, p. 2.

134. 134 London no. 439 to External, March 12, 1957, p. 3.

135. 135 London no. 439 to External, March 12, 1957, p. 3.

136. 136 EXTOT no. DS-65 to EmbWA, March 14, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00121, p. 1

137. 137 EXTOT no. DS-65 to EmbWA, March 14, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00121, p. 1; “Tripartite Discussions on Alerts,” Foulkes to Macdonnell, March 13, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00116, p. 1.

138. 138 “Tripartite Discussions on Alerts,” Foulkes to Macdonnell, March 13, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00116, p. 1.

139. 139 “Tripartite Discussions on Alerts,” Foulkes to Macdonnell, March 15, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00122, p. 1.

140. 140 Bryce to Macdonnell, March 12, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00113, p. 1.

141. 141 London no. 523 to External, March 19, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00124.

142. 142 London no. 465 to External, March 14, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00120, p. 1.

143. 143 Glazebrook to Crean, November 19, 1955, p. 2.

144. 144 Extracts from the Minutes of the 471st Meeting of the JIC, December 20, 1955, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00635, p. 1.

145. 145 Memorandum for the Under-Secretary, February 23, 1956, p. 1.

146. 146 “Communications between J.I.C. and U.S. Intelligence Advisory Committee,” Crean to Secretary, JIC, April 23, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00070.

147. 147 “Chiefs of Staff Meeting, May 10, Indications Intelligence,” DL(2) to USSEA, May 9, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00074, p. 1.

148. 148 Excerpts from Minutes of the 593rd Meeting of the CSC, Thursday, May 10, 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00078.

149. 149 “Action in event of special message from Washington,” DL(1) to various DEA officials, July 1956, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00087.

150. 150 “Joint Weekly Indications Report,” Bowen to Secretary, JIC, November 22, 1956, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 1, CDIW00682, p. 1.

151. 151 “Joint Weekly Indications Report,” Bowen to Secretary, JIC, November 22, 1956, p. 1.

152. 152 “Tripartite Alerts Procedure,” Norman Brook to PM, April 16, 1957, NAUK, PREM 11/2276.

153. 153 The American contingent included Cabell, but also, intriguingly Frank Wisner, deputy director of plans, along with Huntington “Ting” Sheldon, Park Armstrong and H. E. Furnas. Dean brought Paul Jones and John Roper and Crean brought Saul Rae from the embassy.

154. 154 On Crick, see Michael S. Goodman, “The Foundations of Anglo-American Intelligence Sharing,” Studies in Intelligence 59, no. 2 (June 2015): 9–10, https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Foundations-of-Anglo-American.pdf.

155. 155 “Meeting at C.I.A. on March 28 to Discuss the Exchange of Intelligence Relating to Alerts in the NATO Area,” March 27, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00129, p. 2. Included here is a draft letter to Dulles. It is essentially a re-working of the “formula” into a letter, which would be identical coming from Canadians and British.

156. 156 “Meeting at C.I.A. on March 28 to Discuss the Exchange of Intelligence,” March 27, 1957, p. 3.

157. 157 EmbWA no. 753 to External, April 2, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00130; Dean to Crean, April 2, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00131.

158. 158 “Tripartite Alerts – Intelligence,” Léger to Foulkes, April 4, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00133, p. 2.

159. 159 “Tripartite Discussions on Alerts,” Macdonnell for Foulkes, March 20, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 1, CDIW00126; Bryce to Léger, April 12, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00138.

160. 160 EXTOT no. DS-95 to EmbWA, April 16, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00140.

161. 161 EmbWA no. 1052 to External, May 6, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00144, p. 1.

162. 162 Crean to Foulkes, May 7, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00146, p. 1.

163. 163 Murphy to Heeney, May 8, 1957, CDIW00150; SSEA no. DS-608 to EmbWA, May 31, 1957, CDIW00155; “Tripartite Alerts – Intelligence,” April 4, 1957; all in LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2.

164. 164 London no. 964 to External, May 7, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00147, p. 1.

Notes to chapter 6

1. 1 “Probable Intelligence Warning of Soviet Attack on the US,” NIE 11-3-57, Central Intelligence Agency, June 18, 1957, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000267691.pdf.

2. 2 “Probable Intelligence Warning of Soviet Attack on the US,” NIE 11-3-57, June 18, 1957.

3. 3 “Probable Intelligence Warning of Soviet Attack on the US (US NIE 11-3-57),” Memorandum for the JIC, November 25, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00165, p. 1.

4. 4 “Probable Intelligence Warning of Soviet Attack on the US (US NIE 11-3-57),” November 25, 1957, p. 1.

5. 5 Crean to Dean, December 16, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00169, p. 1.

6. 6 “Exercises of Friendly Forces,” July 14, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, Part 3, CDIW01472.

7. 7 HICLON no. 3 to External, November 14, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00160. When the CBNRC director Edward Drake and C. E. Denning were next in London, they called on Dean to discuss communications channels.

8. 8 Dean to Crean, November 20, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00164, p. 1. Underline in original.

9. 9 EXTOT no. XT-12 to HICLON, November 15, 1957, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00161, p. 2.

10. 10 Lindsay Grant, “The Many Heads of HYDRA: Canada as Cold War Signals Intelligence Hub,” Canada Declassified, accessed June 2023, https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/exhibits/show/the-many-heads-of-hydra--canad/summary.

11. 11 Crean to Colonel C. A. Peck, January 7, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00170, p. 1.

12. 12 Crean to Dean, February 6, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00175, p. 1

13. 13 Crean to Dean, February 6, 1958, p. 1.

14. 14 Crean to Dean, February 6, 1958, pp. 2–3.

15. 15 Crean to Dean, February 6, 1958, p. 4.

16. 16 Crean to Dean, February 6, 1958, pp. 3–4.

17. 17 Lt-Col P. E. Amyot to Crean, March 13, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00190; HICLON no. 10 to EXTOT, February 12, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00178; HICLON no. 16 to EXTOT, February 24, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00181.

18. 18 Dean to Crean, February 25, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00184, p. 1.

19. 19 Drake to Crean, March 3, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00185.

20. 20 Lt-Col Paul Amyot to Crean, March 13, 1958, p. 1.

21. 21 EXTOT no. XT-34 to EmbWA for Uren, April 2, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00200, p. 1.

22. 22 EmbWA no. WX73 to EXTOT for Southam, April 9, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00203, p. 2.

23. 23 Southam to Uren, April 15, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00209, p. 1.

24. 24 Southam to Uren, April 15, 1958, p. 2.

25. 25 “Transmittal of Communications Meeting Minutes,” from Coffey (CIA) to Uren and Bremner, May 6, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00222; EmbWA no. WX76 to EXTOT for Southam, April 16, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00210.

26. 26 Dean to Dulles, April 21, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00212, p. 1.

27. 27 Uren to Southam, May 12, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00224, p. 1.

28. 28 EmbWA no. WX317 to EXTOT for Southam, June 4, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00240.

29. 29 “Procedures for the Committing to the Attack of Nuclear Retaliatory Forces in the United Kingdom,” Report to the President and Prime Minister, June 9, 1958, online at https://unredacted.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/98-245-1-3.pdf, p. 1. On the resulting Murphy-Dean Agreement, see Matthew Jones, “‘A Matter of Joint Decision’: The Origins of British Nuclear Retaliation Procedures and the Murphy–Dean Agreement of 1958,” The English Historical Review, 2024: 1–41, early access, https://doi.org/10.1093/ehr/ceae161.

30. 30 “Procedures for the Committing to the Attack of Nuclear Retaliatory Forces in the United Kingdom,” June 9, 1958, p. 5.

31. 31 Jebb to Hoyer Millar, July 23, 1959, NAUK, PREM 11/3002.

32. 32 Southam to Dean, April 30, 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01074.

33. 33 EmbWA no. WX243 to EXTOT for Southam, May 30, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00232, p. 1.

34. 34 EmbWA no. WX243 to EXTOT for Southam, May 30, 1958, p. 2.

35. 35 EmbWA no. WX243 to EXTOT for Southam, May 30, 1958, pp. 2–3.

36. 36 EmbWA no. WX243 to EXTOT for Southam, May 30, 1958, p. 3.

37. 37 EmbWA no. WX318 to EXTOT for Southam, June 5, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00244.

38. 38 EmbWA no. WX318 to EXTOT for Southam, June 5, 1958.

39. 39 Dean to Webb (US Embassy), July 22, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00263, p. 1.

40. 40 EmbWA no. WX318 to EXTOT for Southam, June 5, 1958, p. 1.

41. 41 EmbWA no. WX318 to EXTOT for Southam, June 5, 1958. See also “Nature of Intelligence Information to be Passed on Tripartite Alert Communications Facility,” Memorandum for the JIC, June 11, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00254.

42. 42 Extract from the Minutes of the 600th Meeting of the JIC, May 14, 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01078. See also Extract from the Minutes of the 597th Meeting of the JIC, April [date obscured], 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01063.

43. 43 Extract from the Minutes of the 597th Meeting, JIC, April [date obscured], 1958. Iterations include: “Indications Intelligence Communications and Watch Procedures,” JIC 278(58), April 28, 1958, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01068; JIC 278/1(58), May 22, 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01080; JIC 278/2(58), May 27, 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01082; and JIC 278/3(58), May 29, 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2 CDIW01155.

44. 44 “Indications Intelligence – Procedures,” April 22, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00215, p. 3.

45. 45 HICLON no. 51 to EXTOT, May 30, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00231, p. 1.

46. 46 HICLON no. 104 to EXTOT, July 29, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00269.

47. 47 HICLON no. 104 to EXTOT, July 29, 1958.

48. 48 Uren to Southam, September 10, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00305; Dean to Southam, October 31, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00328.

49. 49 E. P. Black to Southam, September 19, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00310, p. 1.

50. 50 “The Continuing Need for Indications Intelligence,” Annex A, by Bowen, May 14, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 3-10-2, CDIW00425.

51. 51 “The Continuing Need for Indications Intelligence,” May 14, 1958, p. 1.

52. 52 “The Continuing Need for Indications Intelligence,” May 14, 1958, p. 1.

53. 53 Minutes of the 607th Meeting of the JIC, June 5, 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01096, p. 2.

54. 54 EXTOT no. XT-14 to HICLON, January 28, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01277.

55. 55 GCHQ to CBNRC, July 30, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 2, CDIW00276. On the reversion to Stages 1, 2, and 3, see Extracts from the Minutes of the 681st Meeting of the JIC, March 25, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01346.

56. 56 “Notes on Use of Tripartite Indications Communications System,” Annex A, marked “First Draft,” undated, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00295, p. 1. This seems to be an excerpt of JIC 1103/1(58), a document still withheld by the Privy Council Office.

57. 57 “Notes on Use of Tripartite Indications Communications System,” Annex A, marked “First Draft,” undated, p. 2.

58. 58 “Notes on Use of Tripartite Indications Communications System,” Annex A, marked “First Draft,” undated, p. 3.

59. 59 EmbWa WX 341 to EXTOT for Southam, August 25, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00297, p. 1.

60. 60 Extract from the Minutes of the 632nd Meeting, JIC, August 27, 1958, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 2, CDIW01175, p. 1.

61. 61 Southam to S. F. Rae, September 12, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00307, p. 1.

62. 62 “Report of the Tripartite Working Group on Tripartite Alert System,” Memorandum for Dulles, Dean, and Southam, October 2, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00315, p. 6.

63. 63 “Report of the Tripartite Working Group on Tripartite Alert System,” October 2, 1958, p. 8.

64. 64 “Report of the Tripartite Working Group on Tripartite Alert System,” October 2, 1958, p. 2.

65. 65 EmbWA no. WI-65 to USSEA, December 31, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00345.

66. 66 “Report of the Tripartite Working Group on Tripartite Alert System,” October 2, 1958, p. 3.

67. 67 “Tripartite Alert System,” Memorandum for the JIC, November 14, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00338.

68. 68 EmbWA no. WI-66 to USSEA, December 31, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00344.

69. 69 Greg Donaghy, “When the Chips Are Down: Eisenhower, Diefenbaker, and the Lebanon Crisis, 1958,” in Reassessing the Rogue Tory: Canadian Foreign Relations in the Diefenbaker Era, eds. Janice Cavell and Ryan M. Touhey, (Vancouver: UBC Press, 2019), 95.

70. 70 The JIC minutes referring to this crisis remain heavily sanitized. See Minutes of the 615th Meeting of the JIC, July 15, 1958; Minutes of the 616th Meeting of the JIC, July 16, 1958; Minutes of the 617th Meeting of the JIC, July 17, 1958; Minutes of the 626th Meeting of the JIC, July 30, 1958; all from PCO A-2016-00694.

71. 71 HICLON no. HC-26 to EXTOT, April 2, 1959, LAC, RG 24, JIBS 266-2000-1, part 2.

72. 72 EmbWA no. EX2028 to EXTOT, March 23, 1959, LAC, RG 24, JIBS 266-2000-1, part 2.

73. 73 “Tripartite Alert System – Report on Traffic,” Memorandum for the JIC, December 5, 1958, LAC, RG24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01238. See also “Tripartite Alert System,” G. P. Hartling to Uren, November 10, 1958, CDIW01212; “Tripartite Alert System,” Memorandum for the JIC, November 14, 1958, CDIW01225; “Tripartite Alert System – Interpretation and Procedures,” January 12, 1959, CDIW01262; CIAWAS 05 (Director CIA Washington to JIC London, JIC Ottawa), December 22, 1958, CDIW01260; all from LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3.

74. 74 “Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement – Interpretation and Procedures,” Memorandum for the JIC, January 9, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00355.

75. 75 Uren to Southam, December 19, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00339, p. 1.

76. 76 Uren to Southam, December 19, 1958, p. 2. Uren reported to Ottawa that the initiative had been useful for it exercised the system and resolved some minor problems.

77. 77 HICLON no. 181 to EXTOT, December 31, 1958, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00342, p. 1.

78. 78 EmbWA no. WX1 to EXTOT for Southam, January 22, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00363, p. 1.

79. 79 USSEA no.DI-9 to EmbWA, January 26, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00377.

80. 80 EmbWA no. WX2011 to EXTOT, February 12, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00385, p. 1.

81. 81 EmbWA no. WX2011 to EXTOT, February 12, 1959, p. 2.

82. 82 “Tripartite Alerts – Interpretation and Procedures,” G. C. Cook to Starnes, February 17, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00386, pp. 1–2.

83. 83 EmbWA no. WX2018 to EXTOT, February 27, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00393, p. 1.

84. 84 EmbWA no. WX2026 to EXTOT, March 13, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00398, p. 1.

85. 85 EmbWA no. WX2026 to EXTOT, March 13, 1959, p. 1.

86. 86 EXTOT no. XT-36 to EmbWA, March 20, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00404, p. 1.

87. 87 Dean to Starnes, April 2, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00405, p. 1.

88. 88 Dean to Starnes, April 2, 1959, p. 1.

89. 89 “Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement,” Starnes to LePan, April 10, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00406, p. 2.

90. 90 Dean to Dulles, April 30, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00407, p. 1.

91. 91 Dean to Starnes, April 30, 1959, LAC, RG 25, 29-3-1-2, part 3, CDIW00408.

92. 92 “Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement,” Bowen to Secretary, JIC, May 8, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW00413, p. 1.

93. 93 “Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement,” May 8, 1959, p. 1.

94. 94 Extract from the Minutes of the 693rd Meeting, JIC, June 3, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01417.

95. 95 Dulles to Starnes, June 4, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01453, p. 1; Extracts from the Minutes of the 697th Meeting, JIC, June 30, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01462–CDIW01464.

96. 96 Dulles to Starnes, August 27, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 4, CDIW01524.

97. 97 Starnes to Foulkes, September 14, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 4, CDIW01528, p. 1; Foulkes to Starnes, September 21, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 4, CDIW01532; EXTOT no. XT-118 to EmbWA, October 5, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 4, CDIW01555.

98. 98 HICLON no. HC-26 to EXTOT, April 2, 1959.

99. 99 HICLON no. HC-26 to EXTOT, April 2, 1959.

100. 100 “Tripartite Alerts System – Monthly Report of Traffic,” Memorandum for the JIC, March 11, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01331.

101. 101 Extract UK JIC (59) 19th Meeting, undated, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01327. The author has found no evidence of the result of this operation.

102. 102 Extract from the Minutes of the 700th Meeting held on 22 Jul 59, JIC, July 22,1959, LAC, RG24, CSC 1313:1, part 4, CDIW01490, p. 1.

103. 103 Extract UK JIC (59) 19th Meeting, undated, p. 1.

104. 104 Extract UK JIC (59) 19th Meeting, undated, p. 1.

105. 105 Canadian records of these studies are still closed in LAC, RG 24, CSC 1860:1 and CSC 1860:2.

106. 106 Starnes to Dean, July 16, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 4, CDIW01478, p .1.

107. 107 Dean to Starnes, March 23, 1960, CDIW00881; “Soviet Interdiction of Allied Communications,” Starnes to Secretary, JIC, April 5, 1960, CDIW00882; “Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement – Soviet Interdiction of Allied Communications,” Secretary, JIC, to Secretary, JTC [Joint Telecommunications Committee], April 28, 1960, CDIW00892; H. S. Stephenson (on behalf of Dean) to Starnes, August 15, 1960, CDIW00894; all in LAC, RG 24, 1480-12, part 2.

108. 108 “Reporting on Indications Intelligence,” Bowen to Secretary, JIC, February 20, 1959, LAC, RG 24, 1480-12, part 1, CDIW00810.

109. 109 “Reporting on Indications Intelligence,” February 20, 1959, p .1.

110. 110 “Probable Enemy Activities Prior to the Outbreak of War,” Draft Letter of Transmittal for JIC 312/2(59), February 5, 1959, CDIW00809; “Canadian Intelligence Alert Stages,” JIC 323(59), March 9, 1959, CDIW00813; “JIS List of Critical Intelligence Indicators,” JIC 321(59), March 9, 1959 (with updates as JIC 3211/1(59) on April 24, 1959, and JIC 321/2(59) on May 4, 1959), CDIW00814; all from LAC, RG 24, 1480-12, part 1.

111. 111 “Reporting on Indications Intelligence,” Starnes to Secretary, JIC, March 24, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01352, p .1; Appendix A to [UK] JIC (58)79 (Final), undated, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01348.

112. 112 “Transmittal of General Indicator List (Information Bearing on a Possible Soviet Decision to Initiate Hostilities),” To All Diplomatic Missions and Berlin, Hongkong and Singapore, March 17, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01371.

113. 113 “Probable Enemy Activities Prior to Outbreak for War,” for JIC from Secretary, JIC, April 7, 1959, LAC, RG 24, CSC 1313:1, part 3, CDIW01349, p. 1.

114. 114 “Probable Enemy Activities Prior to Outbreak for War,” April 7, 1959.

115. 115 “FALLEX 62 – JIC POST EXERCISE REPORT,” October 8, 1962, LAC, RG 24, 1216-J2-3, part 5.

116. 116 “Intelligence Warning of Military Attack on North America,” JIC 443/2(62), September 6, 1962, LAC, RG 25, 1-3-12-2, part 3.

117. 117 “Intelligence Warning of Military Attack on North America,” JIC 443/2(62), September 6, 1962.

118. 118 “Intelligence Warning of Military Attack on North America.” JIC 443/2(62). September 6, 1962.

119. 119 Extracts of the Minutes of the 900th Meeting of the JIC, July 25, 1962, RG 24, 2433-1, part 1. This conference, which includes the five members of would come to be referred to as the “Five Eyes,” was meant to build on a 1958 conference in Melbourne featuring attendees from the same five states.

120. 120 “Cuba – Discussion with Mr. John A. McCone, Director of Central Intelligence,” October 18, 1962, GAC ATIP A-2020-01164.

121. 121 The best overview of Canada’s role in the crisis remains Asa McKercher, “A ‘Half-hearted Response’? Canada and the Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962,” The International History Review 33, no. 2 (June 2011): 337, https://doi.org/10.1080/07075332.2011.555450.

122. 122 “Interview with Mr. J. J. McCardle by John F. Hilliker for the DEA History Project,” April 30, 1981, GAC ATIP A-2021-00037.

123. 123 “Cuba,” Memorandum from SSEA to Prime Minister, October 22, 1962, DCER, vol. 29, doc. 653, p. 1132.

124. 124 The American memorandum of the lunch-time meeting, with the names of the Canadians excised, is also available. See Timothy Andrews Sayle, “The Moment Canada Learned about the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Canada Declassified, October 21, 2023, https://timsayle.substack.com/p/the-moment-canada-learned-about-the.

125. 125 Report on the Operation of the Joint Indications Room during the Cuban Crisis,” Staff Officer, JIR, to Chairman, JIC, December 10, 1962, LAC, RG 24, 1480-12, part 2, CDIW00926, p. 1.

126. 126 “Report on the Operation of the Joint Indications Room during the Cuban Crisis,” December 10, 1962. Note the October 23, 1962 minutes of the 914th JIC meeting mention agreement on a state of intelligence readiness, while the JIR report on its operations suggested this alert took effect the next day, on October 24.

127. 127 Minutes of the 914th Meeting of the JIC, October 23, 1962, LAC, RG 25, 50028-CH-40, part 2.

128. 128 Minutes of the 914th Meeting of the JIC, October 23, 1962.

129. 129 “Interview with Mr. J. J. McCardle by John F. Hilliker for the DEA History Project,” April 30, 1981.

130. 130 “Report on the Operation of the Joint Indications Room during the Cuban Crisis,” December 10, 1962.

131. 131 “Warning of Soviet Military Aggression,” JS 3746, CCOS to SACEUR and SACLANT, October 24, 1962, LAC, RG24, CSC 1313:1, part 5, CDIW01943, p. 1.

132. 132 “USIB Passes Its Test in the Cuban Crisis,” excerpt [sanitized copy], undated, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP79M00098A000200070001-2.pdf.

133. 133 “Your Briefings of the NSC Executive Committee,” [Retrospective] Memorandum for the Director, November 3, 1962, CIA FOIA RR, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP80B01676R001800020018-4.pdf.

134. 134 Malcolm Bow to [sanitized], March 29, 1989, GAC ATIP A-2021-00037. The author filed Access to Information requests with Library and Archives Canada (LAC A-2023-00475), the Privy Council Office (PCO A-2023-00088), and Global Affairs Canada (GAC A-2023-00243), for the records described by Bow. Based on correspondence and clarifications with each unit, the author is convinced that LAC, PCO, and GAC undertook thorough reviews. None of these departments could find the records Bow describes.

Notes to Conclusion

1. 1 “JIR Standing Orders,” Memorandum to the JIC, May 21, 1963, LAC, RG 24, 1480-12, part 1, CDIW00925.

2. 2 “Integration of Intelligence – Department of National Defence,” November 30, 1965, LAC, RG 25, 1-3-13-1, part 1.

3. 3 “The Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Agreement,” JIC 543(66), June 8, 1966, GAC ATIP A-2018-00945.

4. 4 “A Tentative Missile Indicator List (Mark II) (Developed in NIC and checked with GMAIC),” undated, LAC, RG 24, 1480-12, part 2, CDIW00908.

5. 5 These lists are found in LAC, RG 24, 1571:1, part 7.

6. 6 “IAC Procedures in Crisis Situations,” March 1, 1989, LAC, RG 25, 29-4-IAC, part 6. See also “Update to IAC Procedures in Crisis Situations: Additions,” April 23, 1991, LAC, RG 25, 29-4-IAC, part 6.

7. 7 On the conference, see Lindsay Grant, “28 September 1966: Provision of Tripartite Intelligence Conference Network,” Canada Declassified, accessed June 19, 2023, https://declassified.library.utoronto.ca/exhibits/show/the-many-heads-of-hydra--canad/1966-1971--heads-and-tails--th/28-september-1966--provision-o.

8. 8 “Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Communications Network Report February, 1972,” March 4, 1972, LAC, RG 73, BAN 2016-00616, Box 19, File 7/10/A/4.

9. 9 “Intelligence Advisory Committee Minutes of Meeting 51/80, 17 December 1980,” December 18, 1980, LAC, RG 73, BAN 2016-00616, Box 10, File 7/10/A/1, part 22.

10. 10 “Alternatives to the Tripartite Network,” [presumably CIA] Memorandum, March 17, 1970, LAC, RG 73, BAN 2016-00616 Box 19 File 7/10/A/4.

11. 11 “Alternatives to the Tripartite Network,” March 17, 1970.

12. 12 “Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Network,” March 29, 1974, LAC, RG 73, BAN 2016-00616, Box 19, File 7/10/A/4.

13. 13 “The Tripartite Intelligence Alerts Network – IAC Communications,” October 3, 1973, LAC, RG 25, BAN 2017-00434-0, Box 26, File 1-3-13-1, part 1.

14. 14 “IAC Procedures in Crisis Situations,” March 1, 1989, LAC, RG 25, 29-4-IAC, part 6. See also “Update to IAC Procedures in Crisis Situations: Additions,” April 23, 1991.

15. 15 DGI [Director General Intelligence] Familiarization Guide, 2013. Available online at British Columbia Civil Liberties Association, https://bccla.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/AGC-0183_0225.pdf, last accessed June 30, 2023. I am grateful to Bill Robinson for drawing my attention to this document.

16. 16 John Fraser, “The Intelligence Advisory Committee 1972-86,” July 31, 1996, PCO ATIP A-2015-00214 states that Canada agreed to the “termination of this Agreement” in April 1970, but this is clearly a misreading of a document describing the Canadian agreement to terminate the communications network, not the agreement itself. See above for the discussion of network changes in the 1970s.

17. 17 See Samuel Eberlee, “Danger in the Asia-Pacific: Canadian Intelligence Analysis and the ‘Imminence’ of World War, 1950–1959.”