chapter 13

Drought Risks and Opportunities in the Chilean Grape and Wine Industry: A Case Study of the Maule Region

Monica Hadarits, Paula Santibáñez, and Jeremy Pittman

Introduction

This chapter focuses on the vulnerability of an agricultural system in Chile and offers potential lessons learned that could apply to Canadian agriculture. Although many differences exist between Canada and Chile, there are similarities at a regional scale between the Canadian Prairies and the Maule region in Chile. Water supplies for irrigation in both countries, for example, are mostly derived from snowmelt in the mountains (the Rockies and the Andes, respectively). Similarities also exist in governance structures in that a private-sector marketing system exists in both countries, whereby producers market their own products. In Canada, this open market, for grain in particular, is a result of very recent policy changes. In the past, producers marketed some grains, wheat, and barley collaboratively on the global market; now they have the option of marketing their product independently. This marketing change, along with other projected changes (e.g., climate, social), may create new risks and opportunities for Canadian producers. The viticulture sector in Chile’s Maule region may offer some lessons based on the experiences of Chilean producers.

Climate change poses challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector, including viticulture (Hadarits et al. 2010; Belliveau et al. 2006; White et al. 2006). Viticulture is particularly sensitive to climate change because small fluctuations in temperature and rainfall can significantly influence wine quality and quantity (Gladstones 2011). In addition, wine grapes (Vitis vinifera) are perennial plants, representing a long-term investment for producers of at least several decades, over which the climate is projected to change beyond the optimal range of growing conditions in many regions (Hannah et al. 2013; Jones et al. 2005). The wine industry is growing rapidly in Chile—the number of hectares planted in vinifera grapes almost doubled from 1991 to 2011 (ODEPA 2013). During this same time period, wine production increased by 500%. Wine exports are important to Chile’s economy, contributing over US$1.4 billion in 2012 (ODEPA 2013; Vinos de Chile 2012). However, a recent study by Hannah et al. (2013) concluded that mean climatic suitability for viticulture in Chile may decrease by up to 25% and available water discharge may decrease 20%–30% by 2050. Future projected decreases in precipitation will also result in an increasing need for irrigation (Hannah et al. 2013). These projected changes have serious economic and cultural implications, especially when coupled with changes in social and economic conditions (e.g., labour laws, consumer preferences, fluctuations in global markets).

This chapter describes drought-related vulnerabilities for the wine industry in Chile using a case study of the Maule region. It begins with a discussion of the conceptual framework and rationale guiding the work, followed by a description of the study site. It then documents the main findings, discusses some potential lessons learned that may be applicable to Canada, and concludes with a summary of the chapter’s main points.

Conceptual Framework and Rationale

Climate Change and Viticulture

The wine industry has observed changes in vine development and fruit maturation in recent years; for example, budbreak, flowering, and fruit maturity have occurred earlier in the growing season in Germany, France, and California (Mira de Orduña 2010: 1844). There is growing concern about the viability of the industry in some well-established wine-producing regions, and as a result, there is a growing body of scholarship investigating the implications of climate change on viticulture and viniculture (Jones and Goodrich 2008; Webb et al. 2008; White et al. 2006; Jones et al. 2005). Holland and Smit (2010) suggest this scholarship falls into four broad categories: i) climate change impacts on wine quality; ii) climate change impacts on grapevine phenology and yield; iii) viticultural suitability and terroir in a changing climate; and iv) the adaptive capacity of the wine industry to climate change.

Much attention has been given to the first three categories, where most of the work has focused on modelling future climate change and assessing the impacts of these changes using phenological and physiological models (Stock et al. 2005). Some research has complemented this work by modelling and estimating the economic impacts on the industry (Webb et al. 2008). Although many studies recognize the need to understand the capacity of the wine industry to adapt to climate change, few studies have explicitly addressed the role of human adaptation in this context (Hadarits et al. 2010; Holland and Smit 2010; Belliveau et al. 2006).

Vulnerability Assessments in Agriculture

Vulnerability assessments have been used successfully to understand how an agricultural system experiences and manages climate and non-climatic risks and opportunities. These assessments have provided invaluable insights from the perspective of producers into current risks and opportunities for their operations, the range of adaptive strategies they draw from, the forces affecting their adaptive capacity, and how climate change may affect them in the future (Hadarits et al. 2010; Young et al. 2010; Reid et al. 2007; Belliveau et al. 2006).

This research adopted a community-based vulnerability approach, where vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of a system’s exposure-sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Smit and Wandel 2006). For a more detailed description of these concepts, please refer to Chapter 1. The empirical application of this approach requires the actors within the system itself (e.g., grape growers, wine producers) to identify the relevant exposure-sensitivities and adaptive capacity contributing to their vulnerabilities (Smit and Wandel 2006). Actors are typically engaged through participatory methods such as interviews and focus groups. Moreover, the assessment of current exposure-sensitivities and adaptive capacity provides a lens through which future vulnerabilities to climate change can be understood (Ford and Smit 2004). Qualitative information about current vulnerability can be combined with quantitative output from climate and agricultural production models (e.g., Hannah et al. 2013; Lereboullet et al. 2013; Jones et al. 2005) to provide a more holistic view of future vulnerability.

Integrating the modelling work (described above) with adaptation research is a new approach in the climate change and viticulture field to understand climate change impacts and the adaptive capacity of the wine industry to deal with these impacts in a more holistic manner (e.g., Lereboullet et al. 2013). This chapter integrates the modelling approach with a community-based vulnerability assessment.

Description of the Maule Region, Chile

The Maule region is located in central Chile and spans an area of more than 30,000 km2 (Figure 1). Maule is the largest wine-producing region in the country, containing the most hectares planted of any region in the country. It also accounts for half of the country’s wine production, most of which is exported. Most of the region’s soils are loam and loamy clay; near the coast the soils are less fertile than the central valley and eastern foothills. As such, most wine grapes are grown in the central valley.

Approximately 1 million people live in Maule, of which 5,000 are involved with growing wine grapes. Grape-growing operations range in scale from large multinational corporations to very small producers. Vineyards exhibit highly varied degrees of capital investment and agronomic expertise, and range in size from 6 ha to over 2,000 ha. Many growers have invested in wineries, either independently or through co-operatives.

With over 55,000 ha of vineyards planted in 35 Vitis vinifera varieties, including Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Carmenère, and Syrah, the region produces almost 400 million litres of wine per year (SAG 2012a, 2012b). Tender fruits are also commonly grown in Maule, including cherries, plums, kiwis, apples, table grapes, blueberries, and raspberries. Many wine grape growers also engage in other tender fruit production. Besides viticulture and viniculture, silviculture is also an important economic driver in the region.

Figure 1. Map of the Maule region, Chile

The Mediterranean climate in the valley is characterized by heavy winter rains and a long dry period beginning in spring (November) and ending in summer (March), creating ideal growing conditions for wine grapes (Vinos de Chile 2010). The dry period facilitates excellent grape maturation, and since rain during harvest is rare, quality remains relatively consistent from year to year. The sharp contrast between maximum and minimum daily temperatures supports preferred vine development and fruit maturation (Vinos de Chile 2010).

Many of the vineyards in Maule are irrigated by either flood or drip systems. Their primary source of water is derived from snow and glacier melt in the Andes Mountains, which feed the Maule, Lontuè, and Teno Rivers. Water is supplied via canals to agricultural producers (Díaz 2007). In Chile, water rights are held separately from property rights. Under the 1981 Water Code, water rights can be obtained from the government, but once rights are fully allocated, transfers take place through the market (Corkal et al. 2006). Although rights are formally specified according to an allocated volume (e.g., litres per second), in practice rights tend to be expressed as a portion of flow or shares of canals (Bauer 1997). In many regions where water resources are scarce, water rights have a high economic value and can therefore be very expensive to purchase (Gómez-Lobo and Paredes 2001).

Methods

Interviews

A multi-method approach was adopted for this work. Seven semi-structured key informant interviews were conducted in Maule between April and August 2008 to provide context for the research. Key informants were purposefully selected based on their experience and knowledge of the wine industry and included oenologists and governance representatives. Building on the key informant interviews, 46 in-depth semi-structured interviews with grape growers and wine producers were conducted. Interviewees were selected using a purposive, snowball sampling technique. Three key collaborators provided short lists of potential interviewees, all of whom were contacted for interviews, and each person interviewed was asked to provide additional contacts. The interview guide was structured around the vulnerability approach, with exposure-sensitivity and adaptive capacity as the main themes. Interviewees were asked categorical questions describing the characteristics of their operation. They were also asked open-ended questions about recent and current risks and opportunities for their operations, management strategies to reduce risks and capitalize on opportunities (current vulnerability), and about potential future vulnerabilities (see Hadarits et al. 2010). The interviews were complemented by secondary sources to provide additional context and verify the information provided by interviewees. In total, 13 grape growers, 31 grape and wine producers, and 2 wine producers were interviewed. This cross-section of individuals involved in the wine industry helped to provide insights into the vulnerabilities across different production systems. Summary statistics for the sample are listed in Table 1.

Climate Change Scenarios

To assess future exposure-sensitivity, climate change scenarios were generated using weather station data and regional climate change models. The baseline (1980–2010) was established by compiling meteorological data obtained from the Chilean National Meteorological Institute and various public and private organizations. This information was supplemented with data provided by the Agroclimatic Atlas of Chile (Santibáñez and Uribe 1993: 66); however, the reference period was updated for this study. This atlas contains cartographic information with a spatial resolution of 1 km. The digital version of this cartographic set is available at the Center on Agriculture and Environment website (AGRIMED, Universidad de Chile; http://www.agrimed.cl). For the future climate scenarios, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) dynamic downscaling model was applied to the 2050 climate period and A2 scenario (http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=94).

SIMulator of PROCedures (SIMPROC) Modelling

The SIMulator of PROCedures (SIMPROC) model was used in this study to assess the climate change scenarios and their impacts on wine grape behaviour. The SIMPROC model is a climatic crop simulator that helps identify important changes in agricultural production (MMA 2010; CONAMA 2008; Santibáñez 2001). The model considers weather variables as well as key variables associated with the production system in question to simulate potential crop yields. Gross photosynthesis, potential dry matter production (Penning de Vries and Van Laar 1982), and maintenance respiration (Van Keulen and Wolf 1986: 479; Ludwig et al. 1965) are all incorporated into the model. There is also a subroutine to simulate the water balance of the soil-plant system, and the user can fix a criterion for irrigation watering and consider the efficiency of water applied. The water deficit is represented through a production function, the growth phase and the process of senescence, when soil water content falls below a critical threshold.

For this study, red and white varieties were evaluated separately, as their optimum growing conditions differ greatly. For example, optimum temperatures for photosynthesis in red wine grape varieties range from 22°C to 30°C (Schneider 1989). High temperatures during bud development stimulate fruitfulness (Baldwin 1964), and optimum temperature for flower primordial induction ranges from 30°C to 35°C (Bruttrose 1970). Buds are more fruitful at high temperatures and light intensities, whereas the optimum range for pollen germination is from 25°C to 30°C (10°C is the minimum, 35°C the maximum) (Santibáñez et al. 1989). For white varieties, the optimum temperature for photosynthesis is between 20°C to 25°C (Schneider 1989), and temperatures above 29°C are detrimental to fruit development and quality. SIMPROC was run for red and white grapes for both the baseline and 2050 under full irrigation and a 20% deficit.

Phenology also modulates crop sensitivities to rising temperatures, frosts, and heat stress. Crop sensitivity may differ from one phase to another. The model contains algorithms to simulate frost damage and the effect of water shortages on production, as well as the loss of leaf area index due to frost occurrence. Frost and water stress sensitivity and temperature thresholds are simulated by a phenological sub-model that assigns each phase a different sensitivity. The model also incorporates the accumulation of degree-days above a base temperature through the relative phenological age variable, which varies from 0 at crop just emerged to 1 at maturity (harvest); this variable represents phenological development.

Results and Discussion

Current Drought-related Vulnerabilities

Drought is a complex issue for the wine industry in Maule. Dry years are extremely problematic for producers—57% of interviewees noted drought, primarily irrigation water shortages, as contributing to below-average years for their operations. Since most vineyards are irrigated in Maule, adequate winter recharge in the Andes is important to maintain water supplies during the summer (the dry season). In dry years, recharge is often inadequate to satisfy demands (i.e., all water rights allocated on a canal). When water supply declines, producers are unable to irrigate their grapes to their satisfaction and the vines’ needs. The vines then experience water stress, which can be advantageous in small amounts but extremely disadvantageous if stress is excessive. Minimal stress is associated with desirable colour and phenolic compound characteristics in wines. Extreme stress, however, is associated with blocked phenolic maturation and reduced production (Lereboullet et al. 2013). Figure 2 shows precipitation anomalies for Parral, located in southern Maule, and highlights the high degree of year-to-year variability growers have to manage.

Figure 2. 1964–2010 precipitation anomalies for Parral (1980–2010 baseline)

Many producers reported that production decreases in times of drought because the vines cannot produce the same volume of juices under water stress, and therefore the grapes are smaller (i.e., volume decreases). Since 2001, many grape growers and wine producers experienced up to a 30% decrease in production as a result of drought. Growers have fewer kilograms to market and therefore their economic returns suffer because they are paid by weight. This loss has carry-over effects because less operating money is available for the next growing season (e.g., for inputs, labour). Although affected by decreases in production, producers engaged in high-quality wine production noted that mild drought increases wine quality in some years because the juices become more concentrated. This effect of mild drought on wine quality creates a marketing opportunity for producers. However, excessive drought decreases their production and negatively affects wine quality.

Growers’ proximity to the main canal influences their exposure to drought. The canals closer to the main canal receive water before those that are farther away. Growers who receive their water last identified much more severe water shortages than those closer to the main canal. Interviewees attributed this effect to water hoarding, a lack of adherence to rationing rules upstream, and losses to seepage and evaporation, in some cases because people do not maintain their canals.

Grape growers and wine producers have a wide range of adaptive strategies they use in the vineyard to reduce drought risks. Almost all growers monitor conditions very closely—many have installed climate and agronomic monitoring equipment—and assess their vines regularly during the growing season to quickly identify signs of plant stress. In drier parts of the region, they also strategically plant vines in low-lying areas to take advantage of natural drainage, and they harvest before the plants begin to show signs of stress. One wine producer mentioned they harvested 20 days earlier than normal (February instead of March) in one drought year to avoid excessive stress, and this worked well for them. Another producer harvested later than normal to allow grapes to reach the preferred level of maturation, but some of the grapes were dehydrated, and this negatively affected wine quantity and quality.

Access to water and water rights also influences drought vulnerability. Water rights in Maule are scarce and expensive (Gómez-Lobo and Paredes 2001), and some large growers mentioned they purchase additional rights to help them through dry times. This situation has led to an unequal distribution of resources and questions around social equity, as small- and medium-size operations become marginalized because they are unable to afford to participate in the water market (Bauer 2004, 1997). The government has attempted to curtail water-rights hoarding by fining users who do not use their allocation—a small price that large producers are willing to pay for increased water security.

Producers explore alternative sources of water and modify their management strategies in times of drought. A few of the interviewees drilled new groundwater wells or upgraded their existing groundwater pumping capacity. One grower also upgraded their irrigation equipment. Many growers modify their irrigation schedules and ration water; 48% of the interviewees produce other crops and prioritize irrigating their higher-value, more water-sensitive crops in drought years (e.g., they water cherries and kiwis before wine grapes). Wine producers often purchase additional grapes or bulk wine to offset their production losses.

Temperature is commonly identified as the main determinant of vine phenology, or the vine’s rate of physiological development from budbreak to flowering, setting, vèraison (change of grape colour), and fruit ripeness (Gladstones 2011: 5). At temperatures above 25°C, net photosynthesis decreases, and at temperatures above 30°C, berry size and weight decrease, and metabolic processes and sugar accumulation may stop (Mira de Orduña 2010: 1845). High summer temperatures, which often accompany drought in Maule, were identified by 20% of interviewees as being problematic. Merlot was identified as particularly sensitive to high temperatures, as exposure results in dehydration, lower yields, and ultimately, reduced financial returns. In addition, when high temperatures are coupled with intense solar radiation, the risk of sunburn increases if growers de-leaf and thin their vines too much; this is more of a concern for white wine grapes because it negatively affects quality, specifically colour and taste.

To reduce the risks associated with high temperatures and intense solar radiation, growers reduce de-leafing and thinning, and remove affected bunches at harvest. They also graft different varieties that are not working well for their vineyard. For example, a couple of growers grafted Pinot Noir and Carménère on Cabernet Sauvignon rootstocks in response to market conditions (i.e., better prices) and to experiment with wine grape suitability in their vineyard. Wine producers try to mix out the undesirable flavours and colour, and they also upgrade their winery equipment to better deal with these challenges. For example, one producer invested in cold fermentation tanks to facilitate better aromas in white wines, and another invested in individual cylinders for each wine batch, which resulted in better-quality wines.

Non-drought Related Risks

Although drought creates significant risks and some opportunities for grape growers and wine producers in Maule, several other forces influence their vulnerability. As is the case in the agriculture sector in general, fluctuations in market conditions create economic uncertainty for growers and producers. Many producers export their wine, and therefore the value of the US dollar greatly affects their bottom line. Much of the industry relies on manual labour to complete their vineyard work (i.e., pruning, thinning, harvesting), and labour is becoming increasingly scarce. Vineyards compete with other agricultural producers in the region for labour; since there is widespread high-value production, people can afford to pay their labourers relatively higher wages than grape growers. This situation results in fewer workers being available to complete vineyard tasks or in delays in work, both of which can be detrimental to production. Education can also influence vulnerability. Maule has one of the lowest literacy rates in Chile, which affects access to information, especially regarding government subsidies, grants, or special programs.

The wine industry is relatively new in Chile when compared to wine-producing regions in Europe. The industry has been growing rapidly since the adoption of neo-liberal economic policies in the 1990s. Foreign investment has increased dramatically since then, as has the replacement of lower-quality País grapes with higher-quality, more climate-sensitive French varieties. Many interviewees highlighted the fact that they are learning through practice and experimentation, and are adapting as they go. Growers are also managing a variety of forces that create risks and opportunities for their operations, although their decision making is largely driven by economics.

Future Drought-related Vulnerabilities

Future climate change scenarios project increases in temperature throughout all of Maule in 2050; the maximum temperature in January (the warmest month) is projected to increase between 1°C and 2.5°C, with the most pronounced increases projected in the Andean region (Figure 3). The minimum temperature in July (the coldest month) is also projected to increase between 1°C and 3ºC. The Andean region experiences the largest increase in minimum temperatures, and this trend decreases from north to south (Figure 4). Conversely, precipitation is projected to decrease (Figure 5). The largest decrease in precipitation is expected on the coast, which could experience up to a 30% water deficit, although the Andean region is also expected to experience a decrease in precipitation (Figure 5). These decreases, coupled with increases in maximum and minimum temperatures, could shift the arid zone in the southern part of the basin by up to 100 km.

Figure 3. Maximum temperature in January (baseline and 2050) for the Maule region

Figure 4. Minimum temperature in July (baseline and 2050) for the Maule region

Figure 5. Annual rainfall (baseline and 2050) for the Maule region

The results of the SIMPROC modelling provide insights into grape yields under full irrigation and a 20% water deficit for both the baseline and 2050 for red and white varieties (Figures 6 and 7, respectively). Under full irrigation, red wine grape yields decrease in the northern portion of the central valley, the coast, and the Andean region in 2050 compared with the baseline. Here, optimum growing conditions would shift toward coastal and foothill regions, which are currently too cold for red wine production. However, yields increase by more than one kilogram per hectare per year in the southern portion of the central valley. Under a 20% water deficit, yields decrease on the coast and the northern portion of the central valley in 2050 compared with the baseline, but yields increase in the southern portion of the central valley and in some parts of the Andean region by almost two kilograms per hectare per year. Comparing the full irrigation and 20% water deficit scenarios for 2050, yield decreases throughout the entire region, highlighting the negative impacts of future drought on production.

Under full irrigation for white varieties, yield decreases along the coast and increases in the central valley and the Andean region when 2050 is compared with the baseline, both under full irrigation (Figure 7). For the baseline and 2050 under a 20% water deficit, yield decreases on the coast and the northern portion of the central valley and increases in the southern portion of the central valley and the Andean region. In 2050, yield decreases across most of the region in the 20% water deficit scenario when compared with full irrigation.

Figure 6. Red wine grape yields under full irrigation and a 20% water deficit (baseline and 2050) for the Maule region

Figure 7. White wine grape yields under full irrigation and a 20% water deficit (baseline and 2050) for the Maule region

To summarize, productivity decreases for red varieties in the north-central valley and parts of the Andean region in the future; this decrease is more pronounced under future water deficits. However, there appear to be opportunities for red varieties in the south-central valley, as future productivity in this area increases in both scenarios. Access to full irrigation is essential for growers, especially in the central valley, to take advantage of the opportunities in 2050 (Figures 6 and 8), as red varieties will require more water (8% for each degree increase in average temperature) due to an increase in evapotranspiration (Figure 8). This underscores the importance of increased efficiency in irrigation water use and reliable water supplies.

For white varieties, productivity decreases along the coast and parts of the north-central valley and increases in the south-central valley, the eastern portion of the north-central valley, and parts of the Andean region (Figure 7). Similar to reds, irrigation requirements will increase for white varieties in the future (Figure 9), and again, access to irrigation water will be essential to maximize opportunities in the future. There is a strip on the coast where irrigation requirements could decrease because the fruit development cycle will be shortened as a result of rising temperatures (Figure 9).

Figure 8. Changes in water requirement for red wine grapes (baseline compared with 2050) for the Maule region

Figure 9. Changes in water requirement for white wine grapes (baseline compared with 2050) for the Maule region

Although there are potential opportunities in the future associated with production increases, growers will need to be able to adapt to the shifts in optimum growing conditions. Vineyards are already planted throughout the region, and growers in the south-central valley may benefit in the future if they have access to water. However, growers in the rest of the region may need to make adjustments to accommodate the risks and opportunities projected for them in the future.

Access to capital will influence future adaptive capacity. Large, capital-intensive operations have the ability to invest in water rights, land, and modern equipment; hire well-trained agronomists and winemakers; and take advantage of the projected shifts in optimum growing conditions. Those that both grow grapes and produce wine have more flexibility and are in a better position to adopt a wider range of strategies to reduce drought risks and take advantage of opportunities, as they can make changes not only in their vineyard but also in their winery. Small growers do not have that option if their crop fails or if their quality is reduced.

A few growers were seriously considering acquiring land in new locations to spread their climate risks. Some interviewees mentioned they had purchased or were planning to purchase land in regions located to the south of Maule to reduce climate risks as well as explore new terroirs. Many were actively exploring new varieties and experimenting with them to determine the most suitable varieties. They were also adding varieties to their production list to be able to quickly adapt to market demands and maximize their economic returns.

Lessons Learned

Drought has significant impacts on the grape and wine industry in Chile, and climate is an important driver for adaptation; however, economics is always at the forefront of producers’ decision making. Profitability is the main concern for producers, resulting partly from the presence of an open market. There are very few government payouts, crop insurance is not widely purchased, and, save for a few small co-operatives, producers market their product independently. Producers spread their economic risk in times of drought and employ adaptation options that help them remain profitable. Many large growers have invested in secondary processing; for example, many growers have established wineries in order to produce bulk wine or fine wine for domestic consumption or export. They also sell grapes, buy grapes, make bulk wine, and buy bulk wine in order to remain competitive. Medium and small growers diversify their operations and incorporate high-value crops such as blueberries, cherries, avocados, and olives. Many growers and producers have also worked together to form co-operatives to collectively market their product (grapes and/or wine), but few co-operatives have succeeded in Maule. These are a few examples of how Chilean producers spread their economic risks in times of drought. Some of these adaptations may transfer to the Canadian Prairies and provide guidance from a different context on how producers successfully navigate drought while trying to maintain profitability in a setting where they must market their product independently.

The water market has been used as a tool by agricultural producers to manage drought vulnerability. But despite water being used very efficiently, it is an expensive commodity, which has influenced who is able to participate in the market. For example, there are increasing concerns about hoarding of water rights and conflicts and social equity (Bauer 2004,1997). These types of issues need to be considered when adopting this type of water market system—another important lesson from Chile that may be applicable to Canada in the future.

The SIMPROC modelling work described in this chapter is an innovative approach to understanding the interactions between agro-climatic trends and changes in climate. The model also identifies the subsequent implications of these interactions for crop yields in Chile. This type of modelling could help provide insights into the interactions and implications that exist for the Canadian context and support the agriculture sector with future adaptation planning efforts; for example, it could help identify new crop diversification options and help guide crop science research interests.

Conclusions

Over the past 30 years, Chile has garnered international attention for its production of high-quality wine at very affordable prices. Since then, growers have been capitalizing on the opportunity to engage in high-value agricultural production and have been transitioning their operations to wine grapes and other tender fruit production. They have widely adopted irrigation technology and are continuously learning about the art of viticulture and viniculture as they experiment from year to year. This shift, in turn, has changed their vulnerability to drought, and the broad lessons learned can be transferred to other contexts (e.g., Canada).

Exposure-sensitivity to drought in Maule can be adverse or beneficial for the wine industry, depending on a variety of factors, including the drought’s timing, duration, and intensity, as well as the production system characteristics and its adaptive capacity. A small amount of water stress can be beneficial for quality, but it decreases production. As such, moderate water stress provides benefits for some wine producers, but results in income reductions for most grape growers in the region. This situation creates an interesting dynamic in the industry as well as differential vulnerabilities, with wine producers accruing benefits from drought at times and grape growers being negatively affected.

The SIMPROC modelling work suggests there will be changes for both growers and producers in Maule. Productivity (yields) is projected to decrease in the northern and western portions of the central valley and increase in the south, which may create more risks for growers in the north and west, but opportunities for those in the south. However, if production decreases are accompanied by higher-quality production, it may actually create an opportunity for some wine producers. The modelling work also indicates that there will be a decrease in future annual rainfall—potentially affecting irrigation supplies—and that crops will require more water in the future, largely due to increases in temperature. Therefore, droughts may become more frequent, and in order for the industry to succeed, access to sufficient irrigation water will be critical. These future conditions add another level of complexity for growers who have begun to feel confident growing wine grapes and producers who have found their niche.

Over the past few decades, growers and producers have developed a wide range of adaptive strategies they use in times of drought. Capital investments may be necessary to accommodate future changes in optimum growing conditions, as new regions may become more or less suitable for certain varieties of wine grapes. Some growers have even begun purchasing lands in the south in anticipation of future changes. This adaptability and foresight will be beneficial in the future should the projected changes become reality. However, some growers and producers are not prepared for, nor even thinking about, the future. As a result, they may face greater challenges under future droughts, especially when coupled with a variety of external forces (e.g., lack of education and access to capital) that will influence their ability to adapt to drought.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the project participants for their time and hospitality. Many thanks to Barry Smit (University of Guelph), Harry Polo Diaz (University of Regina), and Fernando Santibáñez (Universidad de Chile) for facilitating the work and providing constructive feedback. Thank you to the three reviewers for their comments and suggestions, to Darrell Corkal for his thoughtful insights, and to Kaitlin Strobbe for editing and formatting the final draft. This research would not have been possible without support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Canada Research Chairs program), the Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change Major Collaborative Research Initiatives project, the Arthur D. Latornell Graduate Scholarship, and the American Society for Enology and Viticulture Scholarship.

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